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Prediction markets for Digit
Full digitization (not necessarily emulation) of a human brain by 2035
Feb 14, 11:27 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
39.12%chance
8211323
OptionVotes
1433
1170
Will most digital entertainment be AI generated by 2040?
Jan 4, 12:41 PMJan 3, 4:59 AM
64.46%chance
543788
OptionVotes
1231
792
Will any computer virus powered by AI cause large damages to digital infrastructure by 2027?
Sep 13, 11:40 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
39.34%chance
361856
OptionVotes
1125
740
Will a right to digital privacy be established in the USA saying your AI cannot be used against you in a court of law?
May 6, 11:40 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM
10%chance
261713
OptionVotes
1530
1005
By 2028, there will exist an obvious place where digital nomads can earn a living by producing alignment data for AI.
Feb 17, 10:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
19.5%chance
121396
OptionVotes
2032
492
Bitcoin in USD on random day in 2026, resolves to first 2 leading digits as PROB
Jan 23, 11:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
71.38%chance
121270
OptionVotes
1365
807
Will a retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) go live in the USA and become available for public use before 2031?
Sep 6, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
31.33%chance
241227
OptionVotes
1517
626
Will brain organoid computing solve a problem which is infeasible using existing digital AI in the next 10 years?
Jan 10, 7:54 PMJan 17, 10:59 PM
23.46%chance
23806
OptionVotes
1178
923
Will an artificial intelligence or digital person be named as a party in a criminal trial in the USA by EOY 2048?
Apr 5, 5:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
51.51%chance
17708
OptionVotes
1020
965
Will there be laws protecting digital artificial intelligences from hate crimes in the USA by the end of 2060?
Apr 4, 8:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
54.79%chance
13635
OptionVotes
1291
649
If I stick with Digital Ocean, will they attempt to censor any content I host with them before 2030?
Mar 6, 3:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
44.45%chance
5411
OptionVotes
1118
895
Will the United States have an official central bank digital currency by the end of 2038?
Apr 5, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
47%chance
17311
OptionVotes
1089
904
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