DOJ News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

A major war in Asia occurs

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

Trump visits Africa

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

The US leaves the World Health Organization

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

New James Bond actor is presented

Fair elections in 2028

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Approval < 35%

Kennedy Center goes bankrupt

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

A new supreme court justice appointed

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

US national bitcoin reserve created

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

trump gets hospitalized

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Vances have another kid

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

USA experiences a recession.

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

Trump and Obama shake hands

Kennedy Center is repurposed

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Dow rises above 65,000

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump says a racial slur

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Trump gets covid (again)

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

US Invasion of any North/South American country

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Tesla

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

10% fewer government agencies

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

BTC falls below $38,000

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

New national park created

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

Kennedy Center is demolished

Trump announces he is tired of winning

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Constitutional Amendment

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Joe Biden dies

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Another pandemic

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

JD Vance elected President

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

American Manned Lunar Landing

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

Trump proposes renaming or demolishing the Kennedy SPACE Center

The department of education gets desolved

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Starship lands on Mars

Record level unemployment

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

Trump dies

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Approval < 25%

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump loses the fake tan

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

NATO invokes Article 5

US Treasury 10-year bond rate > 7%

Trump gets shot

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

"covfefe" posted again

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump runs for a third term

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump extends his term past 4 years

54 or more Republican senate seats

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Trump is assassinated

Cannabis is federally legalized

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Trump threatens Israel with military action

55 or more Republican senate seats

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

A national ban on gender-affirming care

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Repeal obamacare

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

War is declared against another nation

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Constitutional Amendment

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump and Melania divorce

SpaceX is nationalized

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump accurately quotes a Bible verse with its Book Chapter:Verse citation, verbally and without reading from a script/notes/autocue, excluding Genesis 1:1

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump drinks a beer

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Anthony Fauci is convicted

A hurricane will be nuked

New US national anthem

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

US ground troops, including special operations forces, physically enter Iranian territory by May 1, 2026

US military casualties exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader by March 31, 2026

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Turkey deploys combat troops or conducts airstrikes against Iranian forces by June 1, 2026

Iran inflicts widespread damage on US tech firm (e.g. Amazon, Microsoft) outposts or data centers in the Middle East by May 1, 2026

At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of March 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.

US military casualties (killed + wounded + other) exceed 500 by December 31, 2026

Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major facilities causing ≥5% production/export disruption) on energy infrastructure in ≥1 Gulf Cooperation Council state by June 30, 2026.

US or Israel strikes an Iranian power plant by May 1, 2026 (UTC)

At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of April 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.

Iran charges tolls on at least one ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz after the first announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire, as reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026 (UTC).

Iranian government announces willingness to engage in talks with the US to end the war by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

The US-Iran war is ongoing as of December 31, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei is confirmed dead by the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei dies by December 31, 2026

FBI or DHS publicly attributes a terrorist attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) causing 10+ deaths or equivalent major damage to Iran or Iran-backed groups (IRGC, Hezbollah, Houthis) by December 31, 2026

Brent crude closes above $100/bbl on more calendar days than below from March 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026

Iran launches a drone attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) by December 31, 2026

US launches a ground operation to seize highly enriched uranium from Fordow or another underground Iranian nuclear site before January 1, 2027, but fails to seize or destroy Iran's entire HEU stockpile per IAEA reports.

Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major desalination plants causing ≥5% national water supply disruption) on desalination infrastructure in Israel or ≥1 GCC state by December 31, 2026

Iran kinetically strikes the territory of any NATO member other than the US, excluding military bases, after March 22, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

Iran takes at least one non-Iranian citizen hostage, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet before January 1, 2027

A biological, chemical, or radiological weapon (excluding nuclear bombs) is used by US forces or allies, Iranian forces, or their proxies by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

Reza Pahlavi is confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet to have entered Iran by December 31, 2026

US Congress passes a formal declaration of war on Iran or its proxies before January 1, 2027, reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major outlet.

Iran produces a functional nuclear weapon using primarily indigenous capabilities before January 1, 2027

More than 100 US citizens die in a single attack by Iran or its proxies (excluding lone wolves without direct support), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026

US activates military draft by December 31, 2026

Iran or its proxies detonate a nuclear weapon targeting the US or Israel in 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

US or Israel detonates a nuclear weapon targeting Iran in 2026

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 80% of pre-conflict (Jan-Feb 2026) average daily levels by April 15, 2026 (UTC), per MarineTraffic, Reuters, or equivalent AIS data.

Iranian regime (Islamic Republic government) collapses by July 1, 2026, via significant security force defections or opposition control of Tehran.

Brent crude's official daily settlement price exceeds $200/bbl before April 1, 2026

Brent crude stays above $100/bbl through December 31, 2026

US national average regular gasoline price exceeds $5/gallon by June 1, 2026

US military fatalities exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

US attacks Kharg Island's oil terminals by March 31, 2026 (UTC)

US ground troops are present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026 (UTC)

The FCC revokes a US broadcast station's license explicitly citing its coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

The US administration (via DOJ indictment or equivalent formal charge) indicts a US-based journalist or news organization with treason explicitly citing their coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium (approx. 440kg at 60% or higher purity) is reported missing by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, IAEA, or equivalent major international outlet by June 30, 2026

US or Israel strikes an Iranian nuclear power plant causing a radioactive leak by June 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by IAEA, Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

Post a Tweet

Deny Climate Change

Promote the product of a supporter from the Oval Office

Withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Agreement

Bomb Iran

Increase US oil production

Pardon a person convicted of a violent crime against police (e.g. January 6 insurrectionists)

Appoint a federal judge who is rated NQ (Not Qualified) by the American Bar Association

Enrich himself & his family financially

Shake hands with Putin

Call a national emergency for a non-foreign affairs issue

Post on Social Media that the DOJ should investigate somebody who is subsequently investigated by the DOJ

Reverse Biden's executive order on AI

Start a war

Have a net approval below -20% at any point

Play golf

Visit a golf course more than 10% of the days he spends in office

Shake hands with Xi Jinping

Suppress, censor, or shut down any US news media outlet (including websites)

Suggest his face should be added to mount rushmore

Exercise

Detain large numbers of legal immigrants as part of a program ostensibly targeting illegal immigrants

Attend at least one current state leader funeral

Question the effectiveness or safety of vaccines in general

Fire someone he nominated to a government position via social media (“fired by tweet”)

Threaten a world leader with nuclear attack

Sign bills with a Sharpie or similar

Have to have the VP (or someone else) be acting president for any amount of time

Visit a golf course more than 20% of the days he spends in office

Comment Publicly on the Investment Merits of DJT Stock

Appoint a Justice to the Supreme Court

Get impeached

Shake hands with Donald Tusk

Pardon himself

Authorize or explicitly endorse violence against peaceful protesters

Withdraw support for Ukraine

Abolish the NIH

Abolish the CDC

Imprison his enemies and democrats

Suggests in a speech or verified written format that Cuba join as a state

Pardon someone with the last name Trump (excluding himself)

Shut down left-wing pro democracy and pro science organizations

Attempt to stay in power for a third term

Trumped-Up Charges: Trump appoints an Attorney General whose office goes on to seek a criminal indictment against ex-President Joseph Biden.

Advocate or support a genocide (anywhere in the world)

Order the US military to attack US citizens on US soil

End SBA direct lending

Leave office early

Use the powers of his office to hurt Elon Musk's competitors

Eat a hamnhrb

Reference "Situational Awareness"

Attempt or claim to seize direct military control of DC via the Insurrection Act, martial law, or similar

Be the subject of a successful invocation of the 25th amendment

Pardon SBF

Make America Great Again

Register with the Federal Election Commission to run for president

Make an executive order with the stated intention of slowing down AI development

Declassify the existence of non human intelligence.

Eliminate Daylight Savings Time

Instruct the military to fire on protesters with live bullets, leading to at least one death

Talk with Kim Jong Un face to face

Order the extrajudicial killing of a (named) US citizen on US soil

Initiate tariffs that would apply to GPUs from Taiwan

Die

Pass away

Ban TikTok

Withdraw the US from NATO

Order the extrajudicial killing of any federal or state elected official

Signs a bill that admits a new state to the Union.

Order a nuclear strike

Completely withdraw United States Forces Korea

Here's Johnny: Trump again appoints John Bolton to an official position in his administration.

Cry on camera

Be in some type of official captivity at any level before the end of the planned term in 2029

Direct the killing of a political opponent

Do another Home Alone cameo

Be removed via the 25th Amendment

Buy Greenland

Have over +20 net approval according to 538, at any point

At least one credible mainstream news source reports by EO2026 that the files are either partially redacted or partly missing or suspects the files were altered (opinion section OK)

By EOY26 Massie claims that the files have been altered or otherwise significantly not in compliance with the bill's requirements

However, the administration manages to blacken great parts of the files.

Something happens or is enforced by Trump to divert the attraction on other things.

A MSM news source speculates partisan bias in redactions (opinion section OK) by EOY2026

After blackened papers are made public, there will be a leakage of uncensored files.

Stacey Plaskett no longer a US House Delegate before 1 Feb 2027?

At least five people with Wikipedia pages resign due to files

The 10 possible "co-conspirators" of Epstein are revealed

Soon after release, the Trump DOJ launches a raft of investigations against political opponents named in the Epstein files.

Trump Cock reveal!

Files suggest Epstein offered to cooperation/testimony against associates within 1 year of his death.

Somebody gets prison time

"Bubba" photo released or leaked by EOY26

An ongoing DOJ investigation triggered by Trump’s allegations involving Bill Clinton or others will result in the files being sealed and not publicly released despite the Epstein Transparency Act

Someone in the November 2025 Supreme Court is mentioned in the files

Any congressperson gets impeached/removed in 2026 in part due to their involvement with Epstein

Trump gets impeached in 2026 in part due to his involvement with Epstein

Any F500 company’s market cap loses 10% within a week of an executive’s involvements with Epstein becoming known

George Stephanopoulos Leaves ABC before 4th of July 2026

At least 10% of current (Nov. 19, '25) House Representatives leave office (by any means) before the next congress is sworn in

YES

Ken Paxton is the GOP nominee

The GOP nominee outruns Ted Cruz's 2018 margin

John Cornyn resigns from the Senate early

Ken Paxton resigns as Texas AG early

Ken Paxton is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to an executive branch position

Ken Paxton becomes a federal judge

Ken Paxton is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to head a major department (i.e. DOJ, FBI)

The GOP nominee outruns Donald Trump's 2020 margin

The SAVE Act is passed as part of a deal to get Paxton to withdraw

One of the two GOP runoff candidates drops out

Apple

YES

FEC opens investigation but takes no action, or is stopped by court decision

FEC reaches settlement

FEC dismisses complaint without investigation

FEC imposes fines, but does not refer to DOJ

Settlement

Judgement in favor of the Justice Department

Judgement in favor of TicketMaster/Live Nation

Dismissal / dropped

NO

YES