Dow News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

A major war in Asia occurs

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

The US leaves the World Health Organization

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

"The New Norm" ends

New James Bond actor is presented

Fair elections in 2028

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Approval < 35%

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

A new supreme court justice appointed

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Vances have another kid

USA experiences a recession.

US Invasion of any North/South American country

trump gets hospitalized

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Dow rises above 65,000

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Trump says a racial slur

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Trump and Obama shake hands

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

Trump visits Africa

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

US national bitcoin reserve created

Tesla

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Joe Biden dies

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

10% fewer government agencies

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

New national park created

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Constitutional Amendment

NATO invokes Article 5

Another pandemic

The department of education gets desolved

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Repeal obamacare

JD Vance elected President

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Trump announces he is tired of winning

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

American Manned Lunar Landing

Trump gets covid (again)

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Trump gets shot

Approval < 25%

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

War is declared against another nation

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Trump dies

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Trump runs for a third term

Trump loses the fake tan

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

55 or more Republican senate seats

Record level unemployment

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

south park is canceled/discontinued

Starship lands on Mars

54 or more Republican senate seats

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump is assassinated

Cannabis is federally legalized

Trump and Melania divorce

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

"covfefe" posted again

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

A national ban on gender-affirming care

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Constitutional Amendment

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Anthony Fauci is convicted

New US national anthem

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

NO

YES

YES

NO

S&P 500

NASDAQ Composite

BTC

Dow Jones Industrial Average

ETH

SOL

USD

EUR

NO

NO

YES

NO

NO

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

Jan-Apr 2028

May-Aug 2028

Sep-Dec 2028

Jan-Apr 2029

May-Aug 2029