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Prediction markets for DW

Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?

Aug 21, 7:36 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM

12022701135

OptionProbability

Elon Musk

Bill Gates

Jeff Bezos

Mr. Beast

Barack Obama

Other

Sam Altman

Ilya Sutskever

Robert Caro

Donald Trump

Gwern Branwen

Benjamin Netanyahu

JD Vance

Jensen Huang

Kamala Harris

Buffett

Joe Biden

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

pope Francis

Peter Thiel

No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific

Sarah Paine

Satya Nadella

Justin Trudeau

Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)

Narendra Modi

Xi Jinping

Dalai Lama

Taylor Swift

Lebron James

GPT-5

Bill Clinton

A basketball player

Vladimir Putin

Jesus Christ

Rona Wang

Jose Luis ricon

Kettner Griswold

James Koppel

Sam Bankman-Fried

Nancy Pelosi

Rishi Sunak

Keir Starmer

Satoshi Nakomoto

Jimmy Carter

George W Bush

Al Gore

Michael Jackson

your mom

roon

Mitt Romney

one or both of his parents

A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"

Connor Duffy

MBS

Geoffrey Hinton

Scott Alexander

The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)

Leonardo DiCaprio

RFK Jr

Sydney Sweeney

growing_daniel

greg16676935420

Deadpool

Terence Tao

Shaq

Oprah Winfrey

Yoshua Bengio

Sundar Pichai

Scarlett Johansson

Paul McCartney

[duplicate]

Neel Nanda

King Charles

Kim Jong Un

Gavin Newsom

Royal Palace

[cancelled option]

Daniel Yergin

Peter Singer

Gabe Newell

Neil Gorsuch

Stephen Breyer

Dmitry Medvedev

JK Rowling

Shrek

Sam Hyde

[invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI

Marques Brownlee

Vivek Ramaswamy

Donald Trump Jr.

Ben Shindel

Javier Milei

Dylan Patel

Joe Rogan

Marc Andreessen

Tim Cook

Mike Tyson

Jake Paul

Matt Gaetz

18

13

11

11

9

7

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will any of @Mira 's pets appear on the Dwarkesh Podcast by end of 2025?

Sep 18, 3:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.54%chance

3160692

OptionVotes

YES

NO

68685

2493

Will DeepSeek go on Dwarkesh Podcast in 2025?

Jan 22, 6:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.83%chance

4824718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25942

6512

Will Manifold agree that Dwarkesh's upcoming guest is "by far [his] biggest yet"? (Resolves to poll)

Aug 22, 4:55 PMAug 20, 6:59 AM

26.13%chance

8412010

OptionVotes

YES

NO

812

118

Will humans land on a planet, dwarf planet, or moon large enough to be spheroid in shape OTHER than the Moon or Mars by the end of 2050?

Oct 15, 11:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.55%chance

483468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1177

797

Will Dwarkesh Patel interview a current or former US President before 2027?

Jun 29, 8:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46.05%chance

152586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1082

924

Will "On Dwarksh’s Podcast with Leopold Aschenbrenner" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 25, 2:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7%chance

1948

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1941

898

Dwarkesh Patel Stock

May 20, 7:39 AM

5930

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1910

523

Will Dwarf Fortress still be receiving regular updates when James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases?

Jan 17, 5:03 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

80.02%chance

23775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1321

878

Will there be HD real images (e.g. telescope, probe) of the dwarf planet Eris by 2030?

Jan 9, 3:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

12.5%chance

18649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

886

Will a human set foot on the dwarf planet Ceres before 2060?

Jan 17, 3:58 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

25.3%chance

12256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

983

Will "On Dwarksh’s Podcast with Leopold Aschenbrenner" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 25, 2:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.73%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

985

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