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Top stories

Patriots’ Maye Wins Praise in Joint Practice; Dolphins Keep Hill Sidelined

Patriots’ Maye Wins Praise in Joint Practice; Dolphins Keep Hill Sidelined

Authors

12

3 days ago

Prediction markets for Edge

Will there be a global "pause" on cutting-edge AI research due to government regulation by 2025?

May 22, 8:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

5.17%chance

143463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

852

215

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

819

Will Edge remain the 3rd most popular browser by the end of 2025?

Jan 11, 1:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.94%chance

18654

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1297

790

Do I actually have an edge here? (permanent stock)

Dec 29, 7:22 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.05%chance

6406

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1153

868

Will 5G edge computing gain widespread adoption in consumer services before 2030?

Sep 1, 12:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.12%chance

3270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

290

35

Will the US implement a policy to track and license cutting-edge chips in large clusters by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.78%chance

9265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

181

161

Will the Chainsmokers actually perform at the Edge of Space in 2025 as claimed in 2022?

Jan 4, 1:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.65%chance

3225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

325

31

Will Edge remain the 3rd most popular browser by the end of 2026?

Jan 11, 1:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.32%chance

1179

OptionVotes

NO

YES

215

166

Will Edge Esmeralda have greater attendance YoY every year until 2030?

Oct 19, 4:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.93%chance

455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

72

Will the US require hardware security features on cutting-edge chips by 2028?

Apr 28, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.26%chance

453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

63

Before 2043, will a leading-edge process node feature a new transistor design fewer than 10 years after its invention?

Jun 5, 10:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.97%chance

250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

73

Will any Edge Esmeralda fellow become Thiel Fellow by EOY2028?

Jun 18, 9:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.08%chance

26

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

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