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Prediction markets for Edge
Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?
Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
15%chance
15782
OptionVotes
1675
819
OptionVotes
1153
868
Will the US implement a policy to track and license cutting-edge chips in large clusters by 2028?
Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
42.2%chance
10272
OptionVotes
170
168
Will 5G edge computing gain widespread adoption in consumer services before 2030?
Sep 1, 12:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
10.12%chance
3270
OptionVotes
290
35
Will Edge remain the 3rd most popular browser by the end of 2027?
Jan 11, 1:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
71.69%chance
9169
OptionVotes
265
113
Will Edge remain the 3rd most popular browser by the end of 2026?
Jan 11, 1:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
54.32%chance
1179
OptionVotes
215
166
Will Edge Esmeralda have greater attendance YoY every year until 2030?
Oct 19, 4:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
33.93%chance
455
OptionVotes
140
72
Will the US require hardware security features on cutting-edge chips by 2028?
Apr 28, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
61.26%chance
453
OptionVotes
120
63
Before 2043, will a leading-edge process node feature a new transistor design fewer than 10 years after its invention?
Jun 5, 10:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
56.97%chance
250
OptionVotes
106
73
Will any Edge Esmeralda fellow become Thiel Fellow by EOY2028?
Jun 18, 9:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
48.08%chance
26
OptionVotes
104
96
Will Nick Ford, gwern, or *any* Edge Esmeralda fellow (eg Janet Shin) attend Jose Luis Ricon's wedding?
Jun 16, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100
How many parameters will the cutting edge foundation model have in 2030?
Oct 10, 6:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
90