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Prediction markets for Education
Will the US Department of Education cease to exist during the Trump administration?
Nov 11, 11:36 PMFeb 21, 4:59 AM
9%chance
7922197
OptionVotes
1861
46
Real U.S. spending on math R&D at higher-education institutions decrease by at least 25% by EOY 2028
Oct 3, 3:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
19.15%chance
510552
OptionVotes
20550
4866
Will the price of private education in Japan be cheaper in 5 years?
Apr 2, 10:44 AMJul 1, 2:59 PM
58.14%chance
159781
OptionVotes
11784
8486
If elected, will Donald Trump dismantle the department of education as promised?
Jun 26, 4:34 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM
66.01%chance
497579
OptionVotes
1419
731
Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.68%chance
117430
OptionVotes
8928
3471
Will ChatBots become an indispensable tool for most children's K-12 grade education in the United States before the end of the decade (<2030)?
Jan 3, 2:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
47.49%chance
463997
OptionVotes
1202
838
AI will be delivering the general education curriculum for all public universities within two years?
Jul 8, 10:23 PMJul 8, 10:18 PM
9%chance
16751
OptionVotes
318
31
Will evolutionary psychology be adopted into mainstream psychology education by 2050?
Apr 8, 9:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM
76.97%chance
19568
OptionVotes
1409
832
Will the cost of higher education in the US maintain an average growth rate above 3% until 2040?
Apr 16, 9:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
40.62%chance
14546
OptionVotes
1344
661
Will the next leader of Russia after Putin have gotten a western education [in US or Europe (EU)]?
Oct 25, 7:40 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM
33.88%chance
18478
OptionVotes
1055
859
Will the college educated White vote swing toward the Republican presidential nominee in 2028 relative to 2024?
Jan 25, 5:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
26.81%chance
5116
OptionVotes
165
61
Will AI provide significant uplift to CBRN threat creation for high-school educated people by 2030?
Aug 29, 12:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
66.61%chance
794
OptionVotes
141
71