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Prediction markets for EFF

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.1%chance

455323493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2699

2492

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.58%chance

47789897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7410

4932

Will there be 10 new effective altruist billionaires in the next 5 years?

Jul 1, 12:42 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM

26.26%chance

24048106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1768

1731

Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

Oct 21, 3:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.96%chance

13111292

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2160

1961

Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035

Nov 30, 10:02 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

20.78%chance

559461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3422

3106

Will a GPT-4 level efficient HRM based language model be released before Feb 2026? [Details in description]

Jul 31, 3:58 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

15.15%chance

575571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

42

Will the Federal Government effectively ban the use of gas stoves in new construction by 2026?

Jan 13, 12:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9.11%chance

1414725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3527

1816

Will the Effective Altruism movement continue to exist in 2035?

Jan 14, 12:24 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

75.32%chance

823353

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1857

1515

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.93%chance

131580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

1287

Will LOY-001 establish efficacy?

Dec 12, 5:18 PMDec 20, 7:59 AM

17.18%chance

24865

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1906

1905

Effective Altruism stock [permanent]

Mar 16, 6:55 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

68.93%chance

21343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

972

Will trials show DDL-920 effectiveness in humans?

Aug 9, 7:22 AMAug 16, 6:59 PM

50.51%chance

4150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

1062

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