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Prediction markets for EFF
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
31.32%chance
480364022
OptionVotes
2874
2054
Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]
Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
24.4%chance
47990058
OptionVotes
7184
5003
5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.
Dec 27, 8:16 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM
70.95%chance
11853517
OptionVotes
1563
640
Will there be 10 new effective altruist billionaires in the next 5 years?
Jul 1, 12:42 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM
19.75%chance
24148656
OptionVotes
2318
1569
Will a GPT-4 level efficient HRM based language model be released before Feb 2026? [Details in description]
Jul 31, 3:58 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM
5%chance
8620327
OptionVotes
2834
793
Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?
Oct 21, 3:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
65.49%chance
13211307
OptionVotes
2132
1976
Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035
Nov 30, 10:02 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM
20.78%chance
559461
OptionVotes
3422
3106
Will the Effective Altruism movement continue to exist in 2035?
Jan 14, 12:24 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
74.68%chance
833368
OptionVotes
1812
1530
Peer-reviewed paper in 2026 shows mycelial compounds effective against respiratory diseases?
Nov 12, 4:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
65.82%chance
102493
OptionVotes
1388
721
Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?
Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
34.79%chance
141630
OptionVotes
1809
1260
OptionVotes
1906
1905
OptionVotes
1002
972
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