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Prediction markets for EFF
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
39.2%chance
619656382
OptionVotes
5632
4083
Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]
Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
23.75%chance
48190222
OptionVotes
7361
4947
Will there be 10 new effective altruist billionaires in the next 5 years?
Jul 1, 12:42 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM
26.18%chance
24449038
OptionVotes
1774
1729
Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?
Oct 21, 3:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
67.62%chance
13311375
OptionVotes
2266
1908
Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035
Nov 30, 10:02 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM
20.78%chance
559461
OptionVotes
3422
3106
Will the Effective Altruism movement continue to exist in 2035?
Jan 14, 12:24 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
87.8%chance
875712
OptionVotes
3425
1185
OptionVotes
2905
1747
Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?
Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
34.79%chance
141630
OptionVotes
1809
1260
Will the Jones Act be in effect for more than half of 2027?
Jun 5, 5:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
38.28%chance
7706
OptionVotes
1270
788
Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)?
Jan 7, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
49.98%chance
13533
OptionVotes
1290
481
OptionVotes
1056
967
OptionVotes
1078
1062
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