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Prediction markets for ENA
Will Neuralink successfully enable a blind person to see again using its technology by 2030?
Jan 21, 2:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
75.48%chance
18391468
OptionVotes
1890
239
Will Trump's use of IEEPA to enact tariffs without congress be ruled unlawful?
Mar 11, 1:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
43.19%chance
1619132
OptionVotes
11470
8719
Will Neuralink successfully enable a paralyzed person to walk again using its technology by 2030?
Jan 21, 2:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
63.44%chance
9415035
OptionVotes
1669
470
Will a National Abortion Ban Be Enacted in the US Before 2026?
Nov 6, 5:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
4.58%chance
238745
OptionVotes
4563
219
Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
Jan 21, 11:42 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM
7.29%chance
507901
OptionVotes
5386
489
Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?
Nov 5, 2:47 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
12.56%chance
363681
OptionVotes
988
923
Will AI or other tech be usable by the public to enable lucid dreaming by 2027?
Oct 9, 12:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
30.55%chance
261430
OptionVotes
1051
776
Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?
Nov 13, 7:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
64.18%chance
9660
OptionVotes
1339
747
Will significant prosecutorial reform be enacted in South Korea by 2028?
Dec 13, 12:20 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
65.24%chance
3390
OptionVotes
1370
730
Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027
May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM
59.5%chance
2232
OptionVotes
1212
825
If Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress?
Mar 9, 11:00 PMNov 3, 10:59 PM
23.65%chance
11163
OptionVotes
1150
931
Will an anti-discrimination law be enacted to protect U.S. federal employees who have been genetically-edited or screened as embryos by 2100?
Jun 30, 1:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
46.69%chance
10109
OptionVotes
1011
989
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