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Top stories

Russia Damages EU Office in Kyiv; Ukrainian Drones Torch Two Russian Refineries

Russia Damages EU Office in Kyiv; Ukrainian Drones Torch Two Russian Refineries

Authors

25

7 months ago

Prediction markets for EU Commission

Who will sit on the Board of Peace?

Jan 20, 4:29 AMDec 31, 4:11 AM

3619938

OptionProbability

Tony Blair (former UK Prime Minister)

Viktor Orbán (Hungarian Prime Minister)

Tô Lâm (Vietnamese Communist Party Secretary General)

Javier Milei (Argentine President)

Santiago Peña (Paraguayan President)

Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Turkish President)

Shehbaz Sharif (Pakistani Prime Minister)

Marco Rubio (US Secretary of State)

Steve Witkoff (US Special Envoy)

Jared Kushner (Trump's son-in-law)

Marc Rowan (Finance billionaire)

Ajay Banga (President of World Bank)

Robert Gabriel (US Security Adviser)

Nickolay Mladenov (Bulgarian diplomat)

Alexander Lukashenko (Belarusian President)

Benjamin Netanyahu (Israeli Prime Minister)

Edi Rama (Albanian Prime Minister)

Narendra Modi (Indian Prime Minister)

Vladimir Putin (Russian President)

Anthony Albanese (Australian Prime Minister)

Giorgia Meloni (Italian Prime Minister)

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Brazilian President)

Xi Jinping (Chinese Communist Party Secretary General)

Mark Carney (Canadian Prime Minister)

Ursula von der Leyen (EU Commission President)

Emmanuel Macron (French President)

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

95

93

91

34

31

20

14

13

7

6

5

4

Canada submits formal application for EU membership before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:47 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

6.27%chance

288492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3871

259

[ACX 2026] Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.51%chance

215857

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5765

4833

Will the European Commission publish a new quantum strategy document within the next 60 days?

Jan 26, 8:22 PMMar 27, 8:21 PM

25%chance

345534

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1732

577

EU activates Trade Bazooka against the US before 2027?

Jan 18, 12:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.29%chance

142955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2267

441

Will the energy biding zones for either Germany or France be split by 2030?

Feb 15, 7:29 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50%chance

1750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.64%chance

10746

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1470

680

When will the EU Commission's investigation into Google's AdTech business end?

Jul 28, 11:52 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3369

OptionProbability

2027/2028

2025/2026

2029/2030

After 2030

2023/2024

33

27

24

16

1

Will Hungary still be a voting member of the EU European Commission in 2035?

Feb 4, 10:37 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

44%chance

4164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

97

Will the EU Digital Fairness Act be formally adopted (published in the Official Journal of the EU) by December 31, 2028?

Oct 14, 11:21 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Italy judicial reform: Will the EU Commission's 2027 Rule of Law Report include recommendations on this reform?

Mar 12, 8:03 PMDec 31, 1:00 AM

67.77%chance

345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

Will the US-EU Data Privacy Framework be in force on the 1st of January 2028?

Aug 12, 3:07 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

45.75%chance

337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

107

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Russia
Ukraine
War
Russia Damages EU Office in Kyiv; Ukrainian Drones Torch Two Russian Refineries
Authors
25
7 months ago

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