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Top stories

Russia Damages EU Office in Kyiv; Ukrainian Drones Torch Two Russian Refineries

Russia Damages EU Office in Kyiv; Ukrainian Drones Torch Two Russian Refineries

Authors

25

10 months ago

Prediction markets for EU Commission

Members of the Board of Peace?

Jan 20, 4:29 AMDec 31, 4:11 AM

3722212

OptionProbability

Tony Blair (former UK Prime Minister)

Viktor Orbán (Hungarian Prime Minister)

Tô Lâm (Vietnamese Communist Party Secretary General)

Javier Milei (Argentine President)

Edi Rama (Albanian Prime Minister)

Santiago Peña (Paraguayan President)

Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Turkish President)

Shehbaz Sharif (Pakistani Prime Minister)

Benjamin Netanyahu (Israeli Prime Minister)

Marco Rubio (US Secretary of State)

Steve Witkoff (US Special Envoy)

Jared Kushner (Trump's son-in-law)

Marc Rowan (Finance billionaire)

Ajay Banga (President of World Bank)

Robert Gabriel (US Security Adviser)

Nickolay Mladenov (Bulgarian diplomat)

Alexander Lukashenko (Belarusian President)

Vladimir Putin (Russian President)

Narendra Modi (Indian Prime Minister)

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Brazilian President)

United Kingdom

Anthony Albanese (Australian Prime Minister)

Mark Carney (Canadian Prime Minister)

Giorgia Meloni (Italian Prime Minister)

Xi Jinping (Chinese Communist Party Secretary General)

Ursula von der Leyen (EU Commission President)

Emmanuel Macron (French President)

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

69

37

18

15

11

10

8

7

7

5

5

Canada submits formal application for EU membership before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:47 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

6.27%chance

288492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3871

259

[ACX 2026] Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.77%chance

256014

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5922

4777

EU activates Trade Bazooka against the US before 2027?

Jan 18, 12:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.14%chance

163939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3153

317

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.96%chance

131199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1689

592

🇺🇸💥🇪🇺 Will there be a war between the United States and an EU country or European Union as a whole by end of 2028?

Apr 6, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.07%chance

61130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

98

Will the energy biding zones for either Germany or France be split by 2030?

Feb 15, 7:29 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50%chance

1750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Ukraine joins EU before 2029?

Dec 23, 11:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

9.74%chance

13709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

304

33

When will the EU Commission's investigation into Google's AdTech business end?

Jul 28, 11:52 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3369

OptionProbability

2027/2028

2025/2026

2029/2030

After 2030

2023/2024

33

27

24

16

1

Will Hungary still be a voting member of the EU European Commission in 2035?

Feb 4, 10:37 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

76.76%chance

5264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

197

58

Will the EU Digital Fairness Act be formally adopted (published in the Official Journal of the EU) by December 31, 2028?

Oct 14, 11:21 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Will Project Bromo (the Airbus–Leonardo–Thales space merger) be completed by the end of 2027?

May 19, 1:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Russia
Ukraine
War
Russia Damages EU Office in Kyiv; Ukrainian Drones Torch Two Russian Refineries
Authors
25
10 months ago

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