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Prediction markets for European office
Will Marine Le Pen be a candidate in the 2027 French presidential election?
May 20, 8:13 AMMar 19, 11:59 PM
16.6%chance
242521
OptionVotes
224
45
Will Trump tariff European countries over Greenland?
Jan 17, 5:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.79%chance
281832
OptionVotes
322
31
Accountability: European Commission - Will the EC deliver on these goals and promises?
Jul 19, 1:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
41076
OptionProbability
100
100
63
61
61
59
57
54
53
50
45
41
41
Will the EU AI Act lead to an enforcement action against a frontier AI lab in 2026?
Mar 16, 9:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
60%chance
15340
OptionVotes
122
82
Will Cyprus join the Schengen Area by December 31, 2026?
Apr 28, 6:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
34.52%chance
10274
OptionVotes
138
73
OptionProbability
48
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
4
Will Chancellor Merz announce a German defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by the end of 2026?
Feb 9, 3:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
31.85%chance
7141
OptionVotes
146
68
OptionVotes
109
92
Will the EU publish final AI Act Article 73 incident guidance by Aug 2, 2026?
May 12, 10:15 AMAug 2, 10:00 PM
51.03%chance
340
OptionVotes
126
62
After the acquisition of Teka group by chinese Midea, will they close the production site of Teka sinks in spain?
Oct 22, 8:33 PMDec 31, 9:26 PM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100


