FCC News

US ground troops, including special operations forces, physically enter Iranian territory by May 1, 2026

US military casualties exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader by March 31, 2026

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Turkey deploys combat troops or conducts airstrikes against Iranian forces by June 1, 2026

Iran inflicts widespread damage on US tech firm (e.g. Amazon, Microsoft) outposts or data centers in the Middle East by May 1, 2026

At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of March 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.

US military casualties (killed + wounded + other) exceed 500 by December 31, 2026

Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major facilities causing ≥5% production/export disruption) on energy infrastructure in ≥1 Gulf Cooperation Council state by June 30, 2026.

US or Israel strikes an Iranian power plant by May 1, 2026 (UTC)

At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of April 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.

Iran charges tolls on at least one ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz after the first announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire, as reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026 (UTC).

Iranian government announces willingness to engage in talks with the US to end the war by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

The US-Iran war is ongoing as of December 31, 2026

Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major desalination plants causing ≥5% national water supply disruption) on desalination infrastructure in Israel or ≥1 GCC state by December 31, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei is confirmed dead by the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2026

US launches a ground operation to seize highly enriched uranium from Fordow or another underground Iranian nuclear site before January 1, 2027, but fails to seize or destroy Iran's entire HEU stockpile per IAEA reports.

Mojtaba Khamenei dies by December 31, 2026

Brent crude closes above $100/bbl on more calendar days than below from March 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026

Reza Pahlavi is confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet to have entered Iran by December 31, 2026

FBI or DHS publicly attributes a terrorist attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) causing 10+ deaths or equivalent major damage to Iran or Iran-backed groups (IRGC, Hezbollah, Houthis) by December 31, 2026

Iran launches a drone attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) by December 31, 2026

Iran kinetically strikes the territory of any NATO member other than the US, excluding military bases, after March 22, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

Iran takes at least one non-Iranian citizen hostage, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet before January 1, 2027

A biological, chemical, or radiological weapon (excluding nuclear bombs) is used by US forces or allies, Iranian forces, or their proxies by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

US Congress passes a formal declaration of war on Iran or its proxies before January 1, 2027, reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major outlet.

Iran produces a functional nuclear weapon using primarily indigenous capabilities before January 1, 2027

More than 100 US citizens die in a single attack by Iran or its proxies (excluding lone wolves without direct support), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026

US activates military draft by December 31, 2026

Iran or its proxies detonate a nuclear weapon targeting the US or Israel in 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

US or Israel detonates a nuclear weapon targeting Iran in 2026

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 80% of pre-conflict (Jan-Feb 2026) average daily levels by April 15, 2026 (UTC), per MarineTraffic, Reuters, or equivalent AIS data.

Iranian regime (Islamic Republic government) collapses by July 1, 2026, via significant security force defections or opposition control of Tehran.

Brent crude's official daily settlement price exceeds $200/bbl before April 1, 2026

Brent crude stays above $100/bbl through December 31, 2026

US national average regular gasoline price exceeds $5/gallon by June 1, 2026

US military fatalities exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

US attacks Kharg Island's oil terminals by March 31, 2026 (UTC)

US ground troops are present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026 (UTC)

The FCC revokes a US broadcast station's license explicitly citing its coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

The US administration (via DOJ indictment or equivalent formal charge) indicts a US-based journalist or news organization with treason explicitly citing their coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium (approx. 440kg at 60% or higher purity) is reported missing by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, IAEA, or equivalent major international outlet by June 30, 2026

US or Israel strikes an Iranian nuclear power plant causing a radioactive leak by June 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by IAEA, Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

Shooter captured alive before Oct. 1st

Charlie Kirk receives Presidential Medal of Freedom

Evan permabanned from Manifold

Charlie Kirk is the most viewed article on Wikipedia in 2025

Any left-wing group is legally designated as a "terrorist organization"

Jimmy Kimmel is reinstated.

Jimmy Kimmel returns to air on Sinclair stations

Charlie Kirk dies

Charlie Kirk remains no longer alive

Over 1 million combined lifetime student memberships and faith initiatives by Nov 2026

The Trump Admin fails to issue any federal policies to protect campus speakers before 2027.

government employee fired for personal statements on kirk is reinstated or wins employment/first amendment lawsuit about firing

South Park does an episode that alludes to it

event with left leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting

Jezebel writer Claire Guinan testifies that she doesn't believe in witchcraft.

NYT reporter / opinion columnist fired

Search warrant/subpoena executed against a journalist citing social media posts about the shooting

South Park episode canceled (not delayed)

Another political assassination (either side)

Actblue specifically is labelled a terrorist organization or shut down

Statue of Charlie Kirk erected in the capitol

At least 10 people deported because of anti-Charlie Kirk comments

Robinson's roommate charged with any crime related to the assassination

Any House Democrat is censured for comments on Kirk.

event with right leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting

The FCC revokes a station’s broadcast license over any misinformation about Kirk.

At least once person is hospitalized or killed in a violent incident started by someone who thinks they are retaliating for Kirk's death

Trump invokes the Insurrection Act and/or declares martial law.

Trump initiates a large-scale crackdown on civil liberties in response.

"Groyper War 3" declared by Nick Fuentes or one of his generals

Information reward money paid

high ranking fed (elected, political appointee, or LEO) acting in an official capacity names a suspect later exonerated

arson attack against gender clinic

A prominent anti-Trump journalist is arrested.

At least one furry convention canceled

Jimmy Fallon fired, or show cancelled.

TPUSA supports a gun control bill

BBC does piece on furries that mentions Tyler Robinson

Any Democratic politician is arrested

5+ reporters/columnists fired (across any outlets)

Upcoming issues of Absolute Batman pulled

Search warrant/subpoena executed against an individual citing social media posts about the shooting

Federal investigation started into "funders" of "the left"

Any news organization is shut down

Any left-wing NGO is shut down

A member of a prominent left-leaning organization is arrested.

A furry website is hacked and the users are doxxed

80s-style moral panic over furries

Increased stigma towards sexual "deviants" in the US

Another left-wing group is legally declared a terrorist organization.

"Jimmy Kimmel Live!" ends, or Jimmy Kimmel is fired/resigns

Seth Meyers fired, or show cancelled.

Federal bill named in tribute to Charlie Kirk is signed into law

At least 100 people are arrested on Antifa charges.

Federal bill/EO to restrict/prevent transgender gun ownership

America becomes a one-party GOP state.

National Guard deployed to anywhere in Utah (explicitly linked to Kirk)

Kash Patel fired

South Park canceled

Kirk or the assassination referenced explicitly in super bowl ad

Discord or Bluesky removed from the App Store or Play Store

5 swatting attacks reported on (not before) 9/12

Acquired by Paramount

Purchase stalled bureaucratically

Acquired by Netflix

Bankrupt proceedings initiated

YES

YES

no

DOC

DHS

Other

FDA

CDC

DOE

NSA

ICE

DEA

SEC

CIA

FBI

DOD

FCC

DOJ

John Oliver

Jimmy Kimmel

Jimmy Fallon

Seth Meyers

Bill Maher

NO

NO

NO

A muon collider will start construction in the US before the end of year 2050.

The International Linear Collider (ILC) will start construction in Japan before the end of year 2050.

A final decision is made by the CERN Council to not proceed with the Future Circular Collider (FCC) project by the end of year 2040.