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Top stories

Fed’s Waller Backs September 25-Point Cut, Signals More Easing Ahead

Fed’s Waller Backs September 25-Point Cut, Signals More Easing Ahead

Authors

36

5 months ago

Markets Put 87% Odds on Fed September Rate Cut

Markets Put 87% Odds on Fed September Rate Cut

Authors

6

5 months ago

Fed’s Lisa Cook Sues Trump, Challenging Attempted Firing and Fed Independence

US Gov Appointments

Fed’s Lisa Cook Sues Trump, Challenging Attempted Firing and Fed Independence

Authors

115

5 months ago

FHFA’s Pulte Files Second Criminal Referral Alleging Mortgage Fraud by Fed’s Lisa Cook

Authors

15

5 months ago

US Economy Expands 3.3% in Second Quarter on Trade, Investment

Authors

30

5 months ago

Global Markets Steady as Investors Wait for Key US PCE Inflation

Authors

19

5 months ago

US Domestic Policy

White House Vows to Keep Up Fight With Fed Governor Lisa Cook

Authors

5

5 months ago

US Gov Appointments

Senate Republicans Fast-Track Miran for Fed Board Before September Meeting

Authors

6

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Fed

Will the fed funds rate be below 4% at anytime by the end of 2026?

Oct 17, 11:18 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

98.79%chance

2863602

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11829

384

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

18.29%chance

4610088

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1576

823

Federal Reserve (Fed) Interest Rate Decision in March

Jan 28, 7:01 PMMar 18, 6:00 PM

219257

OptionProbability

No change

25 bps decrease

Increase

50+ bps decrease

91

7

2

1

Will the Fed be abolished during Trump's term?

Nov 14, 9:57 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

3.91%chance

259052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4956

202

Next Fed chair to have a degree in economics?

Apr 18, 12:20 AMApr 1, 10:59 PM

2.61%chance

237768

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3197

24

How many net Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Nov 1, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

136856

OptionProbability

2 cuts (Target 3.00-3.25)

1 cut (Target 3.25-3.50)

3 cuts (Target 2.75-3.00)

4 cuts (Target 2.50-2.75)

0 cuts (Target 3.50-3.75)

Other

33

29

20

7

6

4

Will Nick Fuentes be revealed to be a Fed before 2040?

Feb 19, 4:04 AMJan 16, 6:59 AM

23%chance

213120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1315

873

Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?

Jan 7, 4:06 PMDec 10, 7:00 PM

65.4%chance

181943

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

549

Trump creates and appoints a shadow Fed chair?

Apr 22, 11:07 AMMay 30, 10:59 PM

16.95%chance

10375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

582

569

Double digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?

Apr 21, 12:20 AMDec 31, 1:18 AM

9.97%chance

10312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

933

How many times will the Fed raise rates during Trump's second term?

Nov 18, 8:09 PMJan 24, 7:59 AM

9196

OptionProbability

Other

Zero

Twice

Once

48

34

10

8

Powell resigns if not re-appointed Fed chair?

Sep 18, 7:55 PMJun 15, 2:49 PM

43.64%chance

9187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

88

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