Fed News

A court issues a temporary injunction preventing Cook’s removal before 2026

Cook remains in her position as of the September rate-setting meeting

At least 3 current or former Fed Govs issue public statements defending Cook or Fed independence before 2026

Supreme Court ruling on the shadow docket

A Supreme Court ruling (regular or shadow docket) has at least 3 dissents

Cook gives a published interview (3 questions or more) before 2026

A higher court reverses a lower court (appeal, tro, etc)

A sitting GOP Senator criticizes the firing (more than just concerns)

Trump will make up a nickname for Cook (announced via post or interview)

A plaintiff sues the Fed, asking court to enforce Cook's firing

Cook is barred from at least 1 FOMC meeting, AND her firing is ultimately deemed illegal

Cook is indicted for a felony related to her mortgages before litigation about her firing is completed

Trump threatens to fire Powell "for cause" since he didn't remove Cook

Cook resigns

Trump announces a nominee for Cook's seat before 2026

Senate Committee holds a hearing for nominee to Cook’s seat before 2026

Yields on 10-year US Treasuries surpass 4.600% anytime before 10/1/25

Supreme Court hears arguments or makes ruling on the incident before 2026

Cook's replacement votes when regional Fed Presidents' terms are up for renewal (Feb 2026)

Trump actually attempts to fire Powell before Cook firing litigation is complete

Other

0 cuts (Target 3.50-3.75)

1 cut (Target 3.25-3.50)

2 cuts (Target 3.00-3.25)

3 cuts (Target 2.75-3.00)

YES

YES

YES

NO

0 (0 bps)

1 (25 bps)

2 (50 bps)

3 (75 bps)

4 (100 bps)

5 - 6 (125 bps - 150 bps)

7 - 8 (175 bps - 200 bps)

9 - 10 (225 bps - 250 bps)

YES

YES

NO

October Meeting

September Meeting

YES