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Prediction markets for Federal

Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?

Jan 22, 11:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12%chance

265528869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24761

5999

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Sep 19, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

149198802

OptionProbability

R President, R Senate, D House

R Pres, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

R President, D Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, R House

D President, R Senate, D House

61

21

17

2

0

0

0

0

Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?

Jan 22, 3:39 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

88.28%chance

3136946

OptionVotes

NO

YES

25582

5728

Alcatraz holds ten federal inmates for one week before January 20, 2029?

May 4, 11:58 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

9.89%chance

11136211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30182

3313

If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?

Mar 10, 5:12 AMNov 3, 7:59 AM

11.52%chance

8830777

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16216

4277

Elon Musk charged with a federal crime before the end of day on December 31, 2025

Feb 3, 12:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.81%chance

4421846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21142

7620

One of Elon Musk’s college aged henchmen charged with a federal crime before the end of day on December 31, 2025

Feb 3, 5:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.44%chance

2813335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21502

5811

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

53.76%chance

419642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11501

8468

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM

39.18%chance

207516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12458

8027

Salary withheld for 5000 full time US federal government employees on or before December 31, 2025

Feb 2, 8:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.33%chance

146906

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14718

5388

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

44.45%chance

141602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10441

9624

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

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