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Prediction markets for Ferguson
OptionProbability
21
17
15
12
5
5
4
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
35
9
9
5
4
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will GLP-1 agonists help stop or reverse the US obesity trend by end of 2027
Apr 29, 12:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM
88.11%chance
382957
OptionVotes
2431
582
By 2050, will informed people significantly reduce their belief in the extent of free will they possess?
May 19, 8:29 PMDec 31, 7:00 AM
50.18%chance
171774
OptionVotes
1030
965
Third Dune movie, but NOT directed by Villeneuve, before 2030?
Mar 24, 10:03 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
6.71%chance
121345
OptionVotes
1458
910
OptionProbability
79
11
7
2
1
Will the Apple Watch be able to properly monitor blood pressure by 2030?
May 2, 8:49 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM
65.19%chance
16387
OptionVotes
1072
954
OptionVotes
108
92
Will an orexin antagonist be the best long term sleeping drug in 2030
May 1, 2:41 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM
55.47%chance
541
OptionVotes
92
88
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