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Prediction markets for FIDE

Will Magnus Carlsen become the FIDE World Chess Champion again by 2031?

Jun 6, 12:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.55%chance

557969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1441

802

Will FIDE stop granting women's chess titles by the end of 2026?

Jan 13, 5:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2.92%chance

115489

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5771

173

Will there be a transgender FIDE chess grandmaster by the end of 2025?

Jun 13, 6:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.93%chance

305283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5711

1071

Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2025?

Dec 29, 8:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

95.81%chance

284137

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4477

598

Will FIDE prohibit any freestyle chess participants from participating in the 2026 World Championship cycle?

Jan 25, 3:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.33%chance

103859

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3848

260

Will Magnus Carlsen compete for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship before 2033?

Oct 1, 1:45 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

7.93%chance

313791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3121

513

Will Magnus Carlsen be dethroned from his #1 spot in FIDE rating before GTA 6 is released?

Sep 22, 12:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7.9%chance

132983

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3415

293

Will there be a transgender FIDE chess grandmaster by the end of 2026?

Jun 13, 6:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26%chance

212415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1687

593

Within 25 years there will be a female world chess champion (FIDE).

Jan 20, 7:39 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

10.81%chance

211728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

948

When will an active female chess player next rank in the top 100 players according to the FIDE standard top 100 ranking?

Mar 15, 4:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6862

OptionProbability

In or before December, 2026

In or before June, 2026

In or before December, 2025

In or before June, 2025

In or before December, 2024

In or before June, 2024

48

44

37

31

12

3

Will FIDE lift restrictions on transgender players by the end of 2027?

Aug 24, 7:54 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

70%chance

19692

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

669

Will someone break the record for youngest Chess player to reach 2800 FIDE rating by the end of 2028?

Apr 22, 1:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.3%chance

8411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

254

190

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