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Top stories

Ten-Year-Old Bodhana Sivanandan Beats Grandmaster, Sets Chess Age Record

Ten-Year-Old Bodhana Sivanandan Beats Grandmaster, Sets Chess Age Record

Authors

5

9 months ago

Prediction markets for FIDE

Will Magnus Carlsen become the FIDE World Chess Champion again by 2031?

Jun 6, 12:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.43%chance

569014

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2760

582

Will FIDE stop granting women's chess titles by the end of 2026?

Jan 13, 5:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.03%chance

146595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5653

177

Will FIDE prohibit any freestyle chess participants from participating in the 2026 World Championship cycle?

Jan 25, 3:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.24%chance

134865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4752

210

Will there be a transgender FIDE chess grandmaster by the end of 2026?

Jun 13, 6:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.97%chance

264816

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3005

333

Will Magnus Carlsen be dethroned from his #1 spot in FIDE rating before GTA 6 is released?

Sep 22, 12:52 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

6.92%chance

184436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3668

273

Will Magnus Carlsen compete for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship before 2033?

Oct 1, 1:45 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

11.36%chance

323866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2406

588

Who will be the first chess player to reach 3000 FIDE rating?

Apr 14, 11:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

111924

OptionProbability

Other

Magnus Carlsen

Fabiano Caruana

-placeholder - dont bet

Yi Wei

Alireza Firouzja

Diren Ling

Yagiz Kaan Erdogmus

88

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

Within 25 years there will be a female world chess champion (FIDE).

Jan 20, 7:39 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

10.81%chance

211728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

948

Who will win the 2026-2027 FIDE Circuit?

Mar 2, 3:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

91150

OptionProbability

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Javokhir Sindarov

Fabiano Caruana

R Praggnanandhaa

Anish Giri

Arjun Erigaisi

Vincent Keymer

Other

Jorden van Foreest

Hans Niemann

Magnus Carlsen

Alireza Firouzja

Wei Yi

Wesley So

Gukesh D

Yagiz Kaan Erdogmus

Hikaru Nakamura

Matthias Bluebaum

Andrey Esipenko

18

16

10

6

6

6

5

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

Will FIDE lift restrictions on transgender players by the end of 2027?

Aug 24, 7:54 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

58.87%chance

22827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1210

454

How many players will have an FIDE rating of 2800 or higher at the end of 2029?

Jun 23, 7:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3577

OptionProbability

1

3

2

4

5

6

0

7

8

9

10 or more

21

19

17

10

6

6

5

5

4

3

3

Will someone reach 2900 FIDE chess rating before Manifold reaches 2900 engaged users?

Jan 18, 1:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.18%chance

4150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

280

91

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 15, 2025
Aug 15, 2025
Britain
Chess
Sports
Ten-Year-Old Bodhana Sivanandan Beats Grandmaster, Sets Chess Age Record
Authors
5
9 months ago

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