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Prediction markets for Fidelity
Will definitive evidence emerge that Justin Trudeau is actually Fidel Castro’s biological son?
Feb 11, 4:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
5.47%chance
7412365
OptionVotes
1963
1087
Full digitization (not necessarily emulation) of a human brain by 2035
Feb 14, 11:27 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
39.12%chance
8211323
OptionVotes
1433
1170
Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?
Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7.64%chance
226982
OptionVotes
3477
288
10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]
Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
35%chance
325852
OptionVotes
1365
735
Which of these potentially world-changing discoveries will happen first?
Apr 1, 10:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM
763753
OptionProbability
29
22
13
11
8
6
5
4
1
0
0
Will definitive evidence emerge that Justin Trudeau is actually Fidel Castro’s biological son any time through 2026?
Sep 28, 5:38 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM
1.79%chance
212623
OptionVotes
2206
928
💰CoolFold Financial Advice #2: Suggest Investments for Me & Predict their ROI, invest & win real money!
Nov 16, 7:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
162599
OptionProbability
74
71
71
70
69
67
67
66
66
65
65
64
63
59
59
59
59
58
57
56
56
56
55
54
54
53
53
53
53
53
53
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
47
44
43
43
36
13
OptionProbability
9
9
8
8
8
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Which is the earliest year we'll have a non-biological 3D printer that can reproduce itself without loss of fidelity?
Jul 30, 6:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
201214
OptionProbability
24
24
22
20
6
4
Will AI pass the Rube Goldberg Turing test by the end of 2028?
Jul 18, 7:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
36.9%chance
13690
OptionVotes
1308
765
Will any top-20 US or Canadian brokerage publicly endorse an open investing-agent standard by the end of 2027?
May 11, 4:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
37.15%chance
4408
OptionVotes
1301
769
Will there be a high fidelity copy, clone, or emulation of any famous person by 2050?
May 6, 1:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
27.61%chance
379
OptionVotes
162
62
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