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Prediction markets for Figure Technology
Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?
Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
74.4%chance
471686608
OptionVotes
17380
10301
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?
Jul 13, 11:37 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM
22.96%chance
9417451
OptionVotes
1707
640
9. Robotaxi services will win double-digit market share in ride-hailing in at least 5 major U.S. cities.
Dec 27, 8:23 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM
12.54%chance
353563
OptionVotes
2641
379
Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?
Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM
70.03%chance
722785
OptionVotes
1725
976
2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.
Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
82.06%chance
372697
OptionVotes
1928
630
What will today's p(doom) be determined to be retrospectively by post singularity simulations?
Jul 9, 2:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
11.84%chance
5427
OptionVotes
273
37
Will the Discord explicit content filter be at least 95% accurate in identifying 3D female nudes by the end of 2032?
May 13, 2:20 AMAug 9, 3:59 AM
82.64%chance
10268
OptionVotes
294
105
Will U.S. Army Col. Karl Nell ever claim under oath that aliens exist?
Oct 21, 1:40 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM
20.46%chance
6130
OptionVotes
197
51
OptionProbability
36
30
28
6
OptionProbability
23
15
15
15
15
15
Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]
Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
51%chance
759
OptionVotes
156
143
Before 2043, will a leading-edge process node feature a new transistor design fewer than 10 years after its invention?
Jun 5, 10:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
56.97%chance
250
OptionVotes
106
73
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