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Top stories

Fiscalía Edomex Dismisses Officials Over Delayed Kidnapping Report in Fernando Case; 394 Feminicides Reported in 2025

Fiscalía Edomex Dismisses Officials Over Delayed Kidnapping Report in Fernando Case; 394 Feminicides Reported in 2025

Authors

4

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Financial Services

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.09%chance

7713190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5918

1919

A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.

Oct 1, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

18.94%chance

505679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

852

Will another unofficial mana financial service/product ran by users be shut down by Manifold by EOY 2026?

Feb 2, 6:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69%chance

335340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

808

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.46%chance

191770

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2102

476

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.09%chance

231483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1197

835

OpenAI Goes Broke before 2033 (See criteria)

Mar 14, 8:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

9963

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1732

577

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

Will Peter McCormack become Mayor of Bedford before 2030?

Jul 16, 10:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.07%chance

3300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1198

835

Will Annual UK Debt Interest Payments Exceed 20% of Government Budget Revenue by 2028?

May 29, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.22%chance

2225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1110

901

Will Florida PALM go live as scheduled on January 11, 2027?

May 30, 2:07 AMJan 11, 11:59 PM

41.68%chance

2212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1183

845

Will my job as a consultant in financial services regulation (UK) be significantly impacted by AI developments by 2035?

Dec 5, 10:01 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

75%chance

681

OptionVotes

NO

YES

193

97

Will Apple have a program that shuts out access based on non-payment on Apple financial services before 2030?

Dec 12, 10:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.19%chance

238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

65

38

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