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Top stories

Fiscalía Edomex Dismisses Officials Over Delayed Kidnapping Report in Fernando Case; 394 Feminicides Reported in 2025

Fiscalía Edomex Dismisses Officials Over Delayed Kidnapping Report in Fernando Case; 394 Feminicides Reported in 2025

Authors

4

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Financial Services

A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.

Oct 1, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

18.94%chance

505679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

852

Will another unofficial mana financial service/product ran by users be shut down by Manifold by EOY 2026?

Feb 2, 6:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69%chance

325320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

808

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.82%chance

455255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3339

2504

Will Congress pass a bill by the end of Q1 2025 that mandates customer service operations to be located inside the USA?

Nov 23, 3:14 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

16%chance

113133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2293

437

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

10916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.22%chance

14858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1271

787

Will AI (large language models) collapse by may 2026?

Aug 30, 4:54 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

10%chance

17496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will Annual UK Debt Interest Payments Exceed 20% of Government Budget Revenue by 2028?

May 29, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.22%chance

2225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1110

901

Prediction markets are the hype cycle of 2026

Jan 3, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.44%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

63

Will Peter McCormack become Mayor of Bedford before 2030?

Jul 16, 10:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.11%chance

2100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

998

Will my job as a consultant in financial services regulation (UK) be significantly impacted by AI developments by 2035?

Dec 5, 10:01 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

75%chance

681

OptionVotes

NO

YES

193

97

Will Apple have a program that shuts out access based on non-payment on Apple financial services before 2030?

Dec 12, 10:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.19%chance

238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

65

38

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