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Top stories

Fiscalía Edomex Dismisses Officials Over Delayed Kidnapping Report in Fernando Case; 394 Feminicides Reported in 2025

Fiscalía Edomex Dismisses Officials Over Delayed Kidnapping Report in Fernando Case; 394 Feminicides Reported in 2025

Authors

4

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Financial Services

Will Extropic be found to be fraudulent by 2026?

May 18, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8%chance

6016771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3391

295

A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.

Oct 1, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

18.94%chance

505679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

852

Will another unofficial mana financial service/product ran by users be shut down by Manifold by EOY 2026?

Feb 2, 6:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

85.04%chance

304823

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1622

825

Which of the following financial services/banking stocks will perform best in calendar year 2025?

Jan 10, 2:07 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

43303

OptionProbability

SoFi Technologies ($SOFI)

Citigroup ($C)

Other

Bank of America ($BAC)

Capital One ($COF)

JP Morgan Chase ($JPM)

Wells Fargo ($WFC)

71

7

7

4

4

4

4

Will Congress pass a bill by the end of Q1 2025 that mandates customer service operations to be located inside the USA?

Nov 23, 3:14 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

19.93%chance

102912

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2004

499

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

10916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.22%chance

14858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1271

787

Will Annual UK Debt Interest Payments Exceed 20% of Government Budget Revenue by 2028?

May 29, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.22%chance

2225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1110

901

Will Apple set up it's own financial services department or subsidiary before 2026?

Jan 28, 5:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.38%chance

7111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

269

127

Will Peter McCormack become Mayor of Bedford before 2030?

Jul 16, 10:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.11%chance

2100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

998

Will my job as a consultant in financial services regulation (UK) be significantly impacted by AI developments by 2035?

Dec 5, 10:01 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

75%chance

681

OptionVotes

NO

YES

193

97

Will Apple have a program that shuts out access based on non-payment on Apple financial services before 2030?

Dec 12, 10:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.19%chance

238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

65

38

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