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Top stories

Parks Fire Near Dublin Spreads to 40 Acres, 0% Contained

Natural Disasters

Parks Fire Near Dublin Spreads to 40 Acres, 0% Contained

Authors

3

1 year ago

Prediction markets for FIRE

Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?

Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

40.08%chance

10224320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2537

1522

Will the sixth novel in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series be released before the death of George R. R. Martin?

Mar 20, 12:36 AMSep 19, 11:00 PM

59.14%chance

956477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

850

Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?

Apr 3, 7:06 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

87.94%chance

596459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2046

1123

Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by the end of 2030?

Jul 24, 10:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.51%chance

576376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1155

893

Will a specific mid-level bureaucrat be fired under Trump?

Nov 8, 4:34 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

24.44%chance

224116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

569

Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?

Sep 28, 11:28 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

18.92%chance

322864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1213

898

Will the Lakers fire JJ Redick before his 4-year contract ends (in June 2028)?

Sep 30, 7:28 PMJun 22, 3:59 AM

55.54%chance

121742

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

895

Will a NATO aircraft shoot down a missile or drone fired towards a target in Ukraine before 2027?

Apr 15, 7:34 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

31.68%chance

301535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1485

643

Will someone have been fired from their job plausibly due to leaking information on Manifold Markets by 2030?

Jan 18, 11:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61.15%chance

291309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

944

Will the first AGI build on some novel aspect of the Q* 'breakthrough' that reportedly contributed to the Altman firing?

Nov 23, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.8%chance

13761

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1256

319

Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days?

Aug 3, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.7%chance

10359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1342

745

Will someone manipulate a fire market?

Jul 2, 6:06 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

44.55%chance

4228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1116

896

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 22, 2025
Aug 22, 2025
Natural Disasters
California
Environment
Parks Fire Near Dublin Spreads to 40 Acres, 0% Contained
Authors
3
1 year ago

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