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Prediction markets for Fire

Los Angeles Fires - Coordinated Arson?

Jan 10, 8:00 AMJan 10, 7:59 AM

1%chance

66307599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

230319

20

Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?

Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45.56%chance

8517148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2279

1711

Trump tries to fire Powell before September 1?

Jul 13, 2:57 AMSep 1, 11:59 PM

9.29%chance

7315535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4580

627

Will the sixth novel in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series be released before the death of George R. R. Martin?

Mar 20, 12:36 AMSep 19, 11:00 PM

54.7%chance

916084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1116

757

Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?

Apr 3, 7:06 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

84.58%chance

545914

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1630

1188

Will a specific mid-level bureaucrat be fired under Trump?

Nov 8, 4:34 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

33.58%chance

193764

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1407

711

Will Trump attempt to fire Jerome Powell before May 2026?

Jul 3, 1:14 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

54.64%chance

352813

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2419

812

Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?

Sep 28, 11:28 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

20.95%chance

312584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

926

Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by 2030?

Jul 24, 10:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66%chance

502545

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

901

Will the Lakers fire JJ Redick before his 4-year contract ends (in June 2028)?

Sep 30, 7:28 PMJun 22, 3:59 AM

56.93%chance

121717

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1150

870

If I set my curtain on fire and don't attempt to put it out for the first 1 minute, will my house burn down?

Nov 20, 7:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.48%chance

18623

OptionVotes

NO

YES

991

965

ICE Assistant Chief Counsel James Rodden, "GlomarResponder," leaves role/is fired before December 31, 2025

Feb 19, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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