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Prediction markets for FIRE
OptionVotes
230319
20
Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
45%chance
9019108
OptionVotes
2303
1690
Will Trump attempt to fire Jerome Powell before May 2026?
Jul 3, 1:14 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM
9.83%chance
518735
OptionVotes
4084
124
Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?
Apr 3, 7:06 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
87.79%chance
556315
OptionVotes
2024
1126
Will the sixth novel in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series be released before the death of George R. R. Martin?
Mar 20, 12:36 AMSep 19, 11:00 PM
52.32%chance
926214
OptionVotes
1155
712
Will a specific mid-level bureaucrat be fired under Trump?
Nov 8, 4:34 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM
33.58%chance
193764
OptionVotes
1407
711
Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?
Sep 28, 11:28 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
16.84%chance
312834
OptionVotes
1351
868
Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by 2030?
Jul 24, 10:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
67.91%chance
522606
OptionVotes
1200
871
Will the Lakers fire JJ Redick before his 4-year contract ends (in June 2028)?
Sep 30, 7:28 PMJun 22, 3:59 AM
56.93%chance
121717
OptionVotes
1150
870
If I set my curtain on fire and don't attempt to put it out for the first 1 minute, will my house burn down?
Nov 20, 7:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
25.48%chance
18623
OptionVotes
991
965
Oct 2 2025 El Segundo refinery fire caused by a deliberate attack?
Oct 3, 5:33 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM
32.24%chance
7465
OptionVotes
1450
690
Will officials determine that the Oct 4, 2025 fire at Judge Diane Goodstein’s home was intentionally set (arson)?
Oct 24, 1:16 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM
52.69%chance
5228
OptionVotes
1055
948
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