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Top stories

Parks Fire Near Dublin Spreads to 40 Acres, 0% Contained

Natural Disasters

Parks Fire Near Dublin Spreads to 40 Acres, 0% Contained

Authors

3

9 months ago

Prediction markets for FIRE

Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?

Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

50.13%chance

9720091

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2092

1887

Will the sixth novel in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series be released before the death of George R. R. Martin?

Mar 20, 12:36 AMSep 19, 11:00 PM

59.62%chance

946469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

861

Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?

Apr 3, 7:06 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

88.12%chance

566365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2074

1119

Will a specific mid-level bureaucrat be fired under Trump?

Nov 8, 4:34 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

24.44%chance

224116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

569

Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by the end of 2030?

Jul 24, 10:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66%chance

543006

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

901

Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?

Sep 28, 11:28 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

16.84%chance

312834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1351

868

Movie/TV show about Sam Altman's Firing from OpenAI / Battle of the Board, before 2027?

Jun 3, 10:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

232243

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1780

562

Will the Lakers fire JJ Redick before his 4-year contract ends (in June 2028)?

Sep 30, 7:28 PMJun 22, 3:59 AM

56.93%chance

121717

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1150

870

Will a NATO aircraft shoot down a missile or drone fired towards a target in Ukraine before 2027?

Apr 15, 7:34 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

37.37%chance

241338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1315

732

Will someone have been fired from their job plausibly due to leaking information on Manifold Markets by 2030?

Jan 18, 11:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61.15%chance

291309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

944

If I set my curtain on fire and don't attempt to put it out for the first 1 minute, will my house burn down?

Nov 20, 7:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.84%chance

19648

OptionVotes

YES

NO

990

982

Will Goldman Sachs fire its banking analysts that took PE jobs?

Jan 13, 1:20 PMDec 25, 1:14 PM

33.54%chance

6434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1408

711

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Aug 22, 2025
Aug 22, 2025
Natural Disasters
California
Environment
Parks Fire Near Dublin Spreads to 40 Acres, 0% Contained
Authors
3
9 months ago

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