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First Solar News

    Prediction markets for First Solar

    OptionProbability

    trump dies

    Bitcoin reaches 180K usd or more

    human steps on moon again

    grok 6 release date

    tropico 7 releases

    fable (2026) releases

    Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases

    Saw XI Releases in USA

    Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more

    stripe ipo happens

    polymarket or kalshi ipo

    Bitcoin reaches 130K usd or more

    biden dies

    trump is impeached by either house OR senate

    windows 12 announcement is made

    Netanyahu out as PM of israel

    Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more

    trump bombs / invades / attacks mexican territory

    Earthquake magnitude 8.5 or higher somewhere in the world

    putin or zelensky lose power

    Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube

    polymarket or kalshi release a credit/debit card

    discord IPO happens

    israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will

    haunted chocolatier release date known

    Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world

    Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)

    Legally Blonde 3 release date announced

    GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86

    new Doctor Who showrunner announced (after RTD departure)

    playstation 6 announced

    new super smash bros game announced (NOT A REMAKE)

    llama 5 release date

    yoko ono passes away

    apple announces a smart ring

    grok 5 release date

    noam chomsky passes away

    fourth Knives Out movie announced

    twitter/x releases x mail to some users

    onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube

    playboi carti releases an album

    openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo

    the second Atlantic hurricane of the season

    Hades 3 announced (game)

    Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire

    coup in an african country

    manifold raises more money

    Third dune movie officially announced

    Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends

    EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26

    anthropic stock able to be bought on nyse

    Third dune movie releases

    Cy Young award winner announced

    EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 27

    EOD Halloween - Oct 31

    Last game of the MLB World Series ends

    apple announces a touchscreen laptop

    First game of the MLB World Series starts

    EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9

    nobel peace prize winner announced

    the first Atlantic hurricane of the season

    commercial airline hijacked

    iphone fold release date known

    beyonce releases an album

    Chat GPT 6 releases to the general userbase

    Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users

    Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year

    the first Solar eclipse of the year

    Patriot Games ending day

    Patriot Games starting day

    someone reaches 100k traders on the creator leaderboard

    the second Pacific hurricane of the season

    the first Pacific hurricane of the season

    fifa world cup - last game ends

    EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4

    Taylor swift gets married

    ozempic/wegovy/glp-1 pill approved by the fda

    English Wikipedia reaches 7.2M ARTICLES or more

    Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year

    marijuana rescheduled as a drug in the USA

    the start of Amazon Prime Day(s)

    Kier Starmer out

    alan greenspan passes away

    Manifest 2026 starts

    spacex IPO happens

    drake releases an album

    EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5

    another trump assassination attempt

    Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year

    Last day of the NFL draft

    undersea cables reported cut around taiwan

    Imu face reveal in One Piece manga

    artemis II mission launches

    EOD Ides of March - Mar 15

    new iphone releases (in the USA)

    trump removes a cabinet member

    First Apple Event of the year

    the first Lunar eclipse of the year

    Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year

    manifold launches real money trading

    EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras

    nioh 3 releases in the usa (game)

    First Nintendo direct of the year

    doomsday clock announcement made

    98

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    5

    4

    3

    2

    1

    OptionProbability

    Mars

    Moon

    A Langrage Point

    Other

    Venus

    Titan

    Europa

    Yes. It might even be a ghost town (or colony) by then.

    74

    25

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Which space application will first use 1 MWe?

    Sep 20, 12:35 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
    92404

    OptionProbability

    Hosted data center

    Cryptocurrency mining

    Reflected sunlight

    Manufacturing

    Beamed power

    63

    17

    11

    5

    3

    OptionProbability

    Orbit

    Moon

    86

    14

    OptionProbability

    Europa

    Mars

    Enceladus

    Titan

    Venus

    Ganymede

    Other

    Ceres

    Another location in the Jovian system

    Another location in the Saturnian system

    Uranus or one of its moons

    Triton

    Another location in the Neptunian system

    Another dwarf planet or one of its moons

    Pluto/Charon system

    30

    20

    14

    10

    7

    4

    4

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    First spaceship will be named Enterprise

    Mar 18, 4:24 AMMar 16, 6:59 AM
    14.08%chance
    19849

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1611

    852

    OptionProbability

    2027

    2028

    2029

    2026

    Other

    2025

    43

    26

    14

    8

    7

    2

    Will Reflect Orbital send 60 satellites into space by 2030?

    May 4, 7:08 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
    12%chance
    7209

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    271

    37

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    309

    174

    What will be the first neutron star radius measured, in km?

    Jul 14, 7:07 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM
    39.5%chance
    556

    OptionProbability

    YES

    NO

    265

    222

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    103

    97

    OptionProbability

    85° S

    89° S

    88° S

    87° S

    86° S

    84° S

    83° S

    82° S

    81° S

    80° S

    Other

    31

    7

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    7

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    7

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