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Prediction markets for Fitness International
How will presidential historians rank Biden relative to other past presidents?
Jul 7, 5:15 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
241971
OptionProbability
33
29
24
6
3
2
1
1
1
1
Will a global AI watchdog be set up in London, modelled on the International Atomic Energy Agency, by Jan 1 2026?
Jun 3, 1:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
18.09%chance
181589
OptionVotes
1860
659
Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?
Jun 13, 7:28 PMJun 3, 4:41 PM
46.74%chance
14929
OptionVotes
1068
937
are LLMs easy to align because unsupervised learning imbues them with an ontology where human values are easy to express
Aug 29, 2:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
31.74%chance
13659
OptionVotes
1117
901
Will Pickleball be an event in the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics?
Dec 11, 8:17 PMAug 1, 3:59 AM
13.06%chance
10404
OptionVotes
424
174
Which presidents will become more highly rated by presidential historians between 2021 and 2025?
Jul 8, 5:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
7200
OptionProbability
79
70
69
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
46
38
13
OptionProbability
80
62
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