OptionProbability
21-25
16-20
11-15
26-30
31-35
Other
36-40
6-10
1-5
41-45
32
18
12
10
8
4
2
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1101
987
William J. Clinton
George H. W. Bush
Ulysses S. Grant
George W. Bush
Barack Obama
John F. Kennedy
Andrew Jackson
Franklin D. Roosevelt
Ronald Reagan
Lyndon B. Johnson
Jimmy Carter
Thomas Jefferson
Woodrow Wilson
Harry S. Truman
Richard M. Nixon
Donald J. Trump
Herbert Hoover
Theodore Roosevelt
69
60
50
45
44
38
35
30
29
21
20
17
7
632
150
Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work
Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)
Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks
Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues
Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery
55
47
46
67
75
66
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