FOMC News

YES

25 bps decrease

No change

Increase

3 cuts (Target 3.50-3.75)

2 cuts (Target 3.75-4.00)

0 cuts (Target 4.25-4.50 or higher)

1 cuts (Target 4.00-4.25)

Three

Two

Zero

One

Four

Five

Six

A court issues a temporary injunction preventing Cook’s removal before 2026

Cook remains in her position as of the September rate-setting meeting

At least 3 current or former Fed Govs issue public statements defending Cook or Fed independence before 2026

Supreme Court ruling on the shadow docket

Cook gives a published interview (3 questions or more) before 2026

A Supreme Court ruling (regular or shadow docket) has at least 3 dissents

A higher court reverses a lower court (appeal, tro, etc)

A sitting GOP Senator criticizes the firing (more than just concerns)

Cook's replacement votes when regional Fed Presidents' terms are up for renewal (Feb 2026)

Cook is charged with any crime by the Justice Department before 2026

Trump will make up a nickname for Cook (announced via post or interview)

Cook is barred from at least 1 FOMC meeting, AND her firing is ultimately deemed illegal

A plaintiff sues the Fed, asking court to enforce Cook's firing

Trump announces a nominee for Cook's seat before 2026

Senate Committee holds a hearing for nominee to Cook’s seat before 2026

Cook is indicted for a felony related to her mortgages before litigation about her firing is completed

Trump threatens to fire Powell "for cause" since he didn't remove Cook

Trump actually attempts to fire Powell before Cook firing litigation is complete

Supreme Court hears arguments or makes ruling on the incident before 2026

Cook resigns

September 2025 Meeting

October 2025 Meeting

December 2025 Meeting

March 2025 Meeting

May 2025 Meeting

June 2025 Meeting

Fed Will CUT Rates By 25BPs

Fed Will HOLD Rates

Fed Will CUT Rates By 50BPs

NO

YES

NO

2 cuts

3 cuts

1 cut

4 cuts

Other

3 - 4.99%

1 - 2.99%

5 - 6.99%

Below 0%

0 - 0.99%

7 - 8.99%

9 - 10%