FOMC News

Other

Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including ChatGPT or any other variation)

Zohran Mamdani

Sam Altman

Xi Jinping

Mark Carney

Benjamin Netanyahu

Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)

Jerome Powell

Jensen Huang

Self Driving Cars (Uber, Waymo, etc.)

The People of Minnesota (and other variations)

Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

[Next FOMC Chair]

Robots (not self driving cars)

A court issues a temporary injunction preventing Cook’s removal before 2026

Cook remains in her position as of the September rate-setting meeting

At least 3 current or former Fed Govs issue public statements defending Cook or Fed independence before 2026

Supreme Court ruling on the shadow docket

Cook gives a published interview (3 questions or more) before 2026

A Supreme Court ruling (regular or shadow docket) has at least 3 dissents

A higher court reverses a lower court (appeal, tro, etc)

A sitting GOP Senator criticizes the firing (more than just concerns)

Cook's replacement votes when regional Fed Presidents' terms are up for renewal (Feb 2026)

Trump will make up a nickname for Cook (announced via post or interview)

A plaintiff sues the Fed, asking court to enforce Cook's firing

Cook is barred from at least 1 FOMC meeting, AND her firing is ultimately deemed illegal

Cook is indicted for a felony related to her mortgages before litigation about her firing is completed

Senate Committee holds a hearing for nominee to Cook’s seat before 2026

Trump threatens to fire Powell "for cause" since he didn't remove Cook

Trump actually attempts to fire Powell before Cook firing litigation is complete

Cook resigns

Cook is charged with any crime by the Justice Department before 2026

Trump announces a nominee for Cook's seat before 2026

Yields on 10-year US Treasuries surpass 4.600% anytime before 10/1/25

No change

25+ bps increase

25 bps decrease

YES

1 cut (Target 3.25-3.50)

0 cuts (Target 3.50-3.75)

2 cuts (Target 3.00-3.25)

3 cuts (Target 2.75-3.00)

Other

No change

25+ bps increase

50+ bps decrease

NO

YES

YES

1 (25 bps)

0 (0 bps)

2 (50 bps)

3 (75 bps)

4 (100 bps)

5 - 6 (125 bps - 150 bps)

7 - 8 (175 bps - 200 bps)

9 - 10 (225 bps - 250 bps)

3 - 4.99%

1 - 2.99%

5 - 6.99%

Below 0%

0 - 0.99%

7 - 8.99%

9 - 10%

YES