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Prediction markets for Foundation
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?
Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
46.96%chance
11227617
OptionVotes
1661
1184
Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?
Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.61%chance
745724
OptionVotes
2141
900
Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 7:39 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
9.89%chance
184256
OptionVotes
3019
331
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?
Jul 24, 7:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
32.34%chance
302958
OptionVotes
1443
689
Will ZFC no longer be the standard foundation for mathematics by 2050?
May 5, 10:39 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
33.14%chance
501786
OptionVotes
1130
919
Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?
Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
54.61%chance
281702
OptionVotes
1032
938
Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028
Jul 11, 11:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
31.51%chance
81237
OptionVotes
1474
678
Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?
Jul 16, 3:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
77.45%chance
5855
OptionVotes
1853
540
Will the Musk Foundation fund a major EA project by 2031?
Dec 11, 1:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
49.1%chance
18680
OptionVotes
1102
845
Will Vitalik Buterin or the Ethereum Foundation be charged by the SEC with selling unregistered securities by the end of 2030?
Dec 30, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
20.49%chance
15541
OptionVotes
1101
956
Will Apple+'s Foundation series follow through to the end of Asimov's novel series?
Sep 7, 6:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
30%chance
16382
OptionVotes
1061
964
Will "Agent Foundations Reminds Me of Continental P..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Jun 4, 12:52 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
15.79%chance
120
OptionVotes
1020
885
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