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Foundation News

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.46%chance

10619842

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1771

1288

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will Danny Ryan re-join the Ethereum Foundation in a leadership position by the end of 2025?

Jan 16, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.17%chance

42642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2058

492

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?

Jul 24, 7:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

242155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

997

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.61%chance

281702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

938

Will OpenOffice.org be officially declared obsolete/unmaintained/archived by the Apache Foundation in 2024/2025?

Jan 30, 6:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.33%chance

371634

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1757

606

Will Microsoft Copilot continue to rely primarily on OpenAI foundation models at the end of 2025?

Mar 19, 8:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64.66%chance

271594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1302

754

Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028

Jul 11, 11:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

63.25%chance

5502

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1312

762

Will Apple+'s Foundation series follow through to the end of Asimov's novel series?

Sep 7, 6:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30%chance

16382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1061

964

Will Vitalik Buterin or the Ethereum Foundation be charged by the SEC with selling unregistered securities by the end of 2030?

Dec 30, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.38%chance

12299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

941

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Jul 16, 3:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.13%chance

4180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1178

849

How much money will the LEV Foundation spend in 2025?

Dec 10, 8:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.57%chance

6133

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1091

996

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