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Prediction markets for Freedom of Information
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
13.02%chance
7532370
OptionVotes
25533
3383
Will the U.S. slide into the tenets of fascism under Trump’s second term by the end of 2025?
Mar 14, 8:07 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM
482805
OptionProbability
89
83
81
80
58
23
Will a FOIA request reveal that Kalshi was primarily responsible for CFTC's decision to shut down PredictIt?
Aug 8, 6:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
14.03%chance
302086
OptionVotes
1513
853
OptionVotes
1129
724
OptionVotes
285
35
Will the existence of a U.S. government program named "Immaculate Constellation" be confirmed by FOIA before 2026?
Oct 8, 11:20 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM
50%chance
6325
OptionVotes
100
100
OptionVotes
1029
953
[Metaculus] Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?
Nov 9, 12:20 AMJan 2, 12:00 AM
88.75%chance
8235
OptionVotes
338
69
OptionProbability
73
60
59
43
24
17
OptionProbability
36
34
34
13