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Top stories

Frontier Adds 20 Routes, Targeting Spirit Hubs Amid Rival’s Turmoil

Authors

4

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Frontier

Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?

May 20, 2:41 PMJan 8, 7:59 AM

42.64%chance

302581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1160

862

SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis)

Oct 9, 11:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.95%chance

332209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

904

Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.47%chance

21563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

721

The American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026

Jan 2, 7:49 AMJan 15, 7:59 AM

42.48%chance

8507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

859

Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%?

Nov 23, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

3450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1450

690

Will there be a US federal antitrust ruling against a 2025 frontier lab by the end of 2032?

Dec 1, 8:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.17%chance

3300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

769

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.02%chance

3192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

981

Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?

Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

56.51%chance

4140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

Before 2027, will an AI product from an American frontier lab readily identify Fetal Alcohol Syndrome in faces?

Sep 15, 11:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.69%chance

390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

994

Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA?

Sep 20, 10:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.89%chance

380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

982

Before 2027, will OpenAI release a Frontier Model trained according to their "Why LLMs hallucinate" paper?

Sep 20, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.5%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

971

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Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Stocks
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Frontier Adds 20 Routes, Targeting Spirit Hubs Amid Rival’s Turmoil
Authors
4
5 months ago

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