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Top stories

Frontier Adds 20 Routes, Targeting Spirit Hubs Amid Rival’s Turmoil

Authors

4

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Frontier

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

May 10, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.82%chance

288253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14639

6831

Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?

Mar 24, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.6%chance

154159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13624

8759

Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?

Nov 18, 8:23 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

91.72%chance

193739

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3341

301

Will Anthropic release a system card of a model at a new frontier of intellegence by August 31st?

Jun 14, 2:59 PMAug 30, 11:59 PM

47.44%chance

71117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1053

950

Any American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?

Feb 25, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.54%chance

20668

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1251

796

Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA?

Sep 20, 10:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.22%chance

6472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1256

796

Will there be a US federal antitrust ruling against a 2025 frontier lab by the end of 2032?

Dec 1, 8:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.17%chance

3300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

769

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.02%chance

3192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

981

Before 2027, will an AI product from an American frontier lab readily identify Fetal Alcohol Syndrome in faces?

Sep 15, 11:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.97%chance

4190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

904

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?

Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

56.51%chance

4140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

Before 2027, will OpenAI release a Frontier Model trained according to their "Why LLMs hallucinate" paper?

Sep 20, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.5%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

971

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Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Stocks
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Frontier Adds 20 Routes, Targeting Spirit Hubs Amid Rival’s Turmoil
Authors
4
10 months ago

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