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Top stories

Frontier Adds 20 Routes, Targeting Spirit Hubs Amid Rival’s Turmoil

Authors

4

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Frontier

Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?

May 20, 2:41 PMJan 8, 7:59 AM

47%chance

343014

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

942

SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis)

Oct 9, 11:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.59%chance

332308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

Will a LLM trained with FP4 have frontier-level performance before 2028?

Feb 19, 9:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.84%chance

11975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1430

699

Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.34%chance

22663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1113

821

Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%?

Nov 23, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

3450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1450

690

Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA?

Sep 20, 10:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.46%chance

5385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1263

792

Will there be a US federal antitrust ruling against a 2025 frontier lab by the end of 2032?

Dec 1, 8:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.17%chance

3300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

769

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.02%chance

3192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

981

Before 2027, will an AI product from an American frontier lab readily identify Fetal Alcohol Syndrome in faces?

Sep 15, 11:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.97%chance

4190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

904

Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?

Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

56.51%chance

4140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

Before 2027, will OpenAI release a Frontier Model trained according to their "Why LLMs hallucinate" paper?

Sep 20, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.5%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

971

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Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Stocks
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Frontier Adds 20 Routes, Targeting Spirit Hubs Amid Rival’s Turmoil
Authors
4
7 months ago

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