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Prediction markets for Frontier
Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?
May 20, 2:41 PMJan 8, 7:59 AM
47%chance
343014
OptionVotes
1062
942
SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis)
Oct 9, 11:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
49.59%chance
332308
OptionVotes
1008
992
Will a LLM trained with FP4 have frontier-level performance before 2028?
Feb 19, 9:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
32.84%chance
11975
OptionVotes
1430
699
Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?
Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
44.34%chance
22663
OptionVotes
1113
821
Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%?
Nov 23, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
32.23%chance
3450
OptionVotes
1450
690
Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA?
Sep 20, 10:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
61.46%chance
5385
OptionVotes
1263
792
Will there be a US federal antitrust ruling against a 2025 frontier lab by the end of 2032?
Dec 1, 8:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
37.17%chance
3300
OptionVotes
1300
769
Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?
Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
49.02%chance
3192
OptionVotes
1020
981
Before 2027, will an AI product from an American frontier lab readily identify Fetal Alcohol Syndrome in faces?
Sep 15, 11:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
44.97%chance
4190
OptionVotes
1106
904
Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?
Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM
56.51%chance
4140
OptionVotes
1140
877
Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?
Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
50.47%chance
3107
OptionVotes
1059
1041
Before 2027, will OpenAI release a Frontier Model trained according to their "Why LLMs hallucinate" paper?
Sep 20, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
48.5%chance
270
OptionVotes
1030
971
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