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Prediction markets for FSD
Will Gavin Baker's forecast that it'll be abjectly humiliating for everyone who is a Tesla FSD skeptic hold?
Aug 27, 8:13 PMFeb 2, 2:59 AM
5139990
OptionProbability
28
10
0
OptionProbability
100
36
34
7
OptionProbability
65
57
55
50
50
35
28
15
4
2
1
OptionProbability
77
76
76
56
44
33
OptionVotes
204
49
Will Tesla FSD Robotaxi have a fatal accident in Austin in 2025
Jun 11, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
13.41%chance
233463
OptionVotes
2541
394
OptionProbability
20
20
20
20
20
20
14
14
10
10
OptionVotes
1004
773
Will a Cybertruck be reported to be involved in any FSD-related fatality by the end of 2025?
Aug 22, 5:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
57.99%chance
9419
OptionVotes
1175
851
US air traffic control (atc) has FSD autopilot by end of 2030
Feb 6, 2:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
16.87%chance
5209
OptionVotes
222
45
Video of Chinese politician actually riding in a car in China with Tesla FSD, by mid 2026
Apr 29, 7:54 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
27.35%chance
379
OptionVotes
218
94
Will a hardware 3 tesla vehicle get an official hardware FSD upgrade by the end of 2026?
Feb 3, 9:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
49.88%chance
210
OptionVotes
105
105
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