OptionProbability
electing a PM who contemporaneously describes himself as a socialist
Coronation of King William
Any Overseas Territory or Crown Dependency no longer under British sovereignty (de jure, even if temporarily)
A major financial crisis (40% drawdown of FTSE 100)
a year where population declines by 1%
Rejoining the European Customs Union
A year with inflation >10%
A Prime Minister not from the Conservative or Labour parties
The House of Lords is either abolished or democratically elected
A game of thrones sequel (not a prequel)
A ≤500-member House of Commons is elected (incl. Sinn Féin)
Republic
Winning the FIFA world cup
Any part of the territory of the UK proper as of 2024 ceases to be under British sovereignty
UK invades a foreign country with >10k ground troops
rejoining the European Union
House of Commons elections use a different voting method than "name one and shut up"
joining the Euro
A year with higher GDP (PPP) per capita than Canada
Two new monarchs after Charles III
Has an NFL franchise
annexation by the USA
100
96
70
66
62
60
57
50
43
42
41
34
26
25
22
13
5
MGC: Vanguard Mega Cap ETF (CRSP US Mega Cap Index)
VWO: Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (FTSE Emerging Markets All Cap China A Inclusion Index)
VOO: Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VONE: Vanguard Russell 1000 ETF
VFMF: Vanguard U.S. Multifactor ETF
VEA: Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (FTSE Developed All Cap ex US Index)
VT: Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (FTSE Global All Cap Index)
35
17
15
10
9
OptionVotes
NO
YES
249
160
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