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Prediction markets for Futu
Did Trump have sexual relations with an underage girl? (based on 2025 evidence, according to future poll)
Jul 23, 2:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
47.54%chance
353112213
OptionVotes
1051
952
Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?
Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.61%chance
745724
OptionVotes
2141
900
Will Michael Levin win a Nobel Prize any time in the future?
Jan 3, 8:10 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM
46.98%chance
331926
OptionVotes
1187
691
OptionProbability
39
20
17
14
10
Will Elon Musk take Twitter public (IPO) anytime in the future?
Oct 31, 5:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
62.63%chance
16809
OptionVotes
1010
951
Will the UK ban smoking for future generations before the end of 2025?
Nov 2, 7:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
66.47%chance
19776
OptionVotes
1072
794
What percentage of FTX Future Fund grant funds will ultimately be returned/clawed back?
Feb 9, 2:56 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
26.04%chance
12728
OptionProbability
1258
854
Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI
Jun 18, 6:38 PMJun 18, 6:38 PM
70.11%chance
4700
OptionVotes
1534
656
Will future language models converge on "what Einstein would have thought of Many-Worlds?" before 2036?
Dec 28, 9:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
46.06%chance
17535
OptionVotes
1052
943
Will AI lead to a dystopia future by 2100 (totalitarianism, disempowerment)?
May 19, 3:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
26.93%chance
12247
OptionVotes
1063
964
Will the future Real Madrid soccer player Endrick Sousa achieve The Best FIFA Men's Player award before his 30s?
Feb 3, 3:26 AMJun 22, 2:59 AM
27.34%chance
10243
OptionVotes
1063
965
Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?
May 6, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
32.09%chance
14135
OptionVotes
1178
1053