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GAO News

    Prediction markets for GAO

    🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]

    Feb 24, 7:07 PMSep 28, 3:59 AM
    297297513

    OptionProbability

    Adolf Hitler

    George Santos

    Benito Mussolini

    Vladimir Putin

    Joseph Stalin

    Kanye West

    Kim Jong-un

    Derek Chauvin

    Xi Jinping

    Jeffrey Epstein

    Marjorie Taylor Greene

    Dan Schneider

    David Duke

    Tucker Carlson

    Mao Zedong

    Viktor Orbán

    Genghis Khan

    Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

    Thanos

    Emperor Palpatine from Star Wars

    Dolores Umbridge

    Nero (Roman emperor)

    Bill Cipher

    Curtis Yarvin

    Nick Land

    Shaun King

    Caligula

    King Leopold II of Belgium

    Negan Smith

    Alex Jones

    Augusto Pinochet

    Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

    A paperclip-maximizing AGI

    Lauren Boebert

    Pennywise, the clown from “It”

    Vlad the Impaler

    Saddam Hussein

    Commodus

    Cthulhu

    Hirohito

    Lucifer, the King of Hell / Satan

    Joffrey Baratheon

    Sauron

    Hong Xiuquan

    SCP-682

    Uday Hussein

    Nicolas Maduro

    Jabba the Hutt

    Kyle Rittenhouse

    Lee Harvey Oswald

    Robert Edward Lee

    Pol Pot

    The Master / Harry Saxon (from Doctor Who)

    Anders Breivik

    Voldemort

    Chris Benoit

    Rush Limbaugh

    Gannondorf

    Bobby Fischer

    Charles Manson

    The Mad King Aerys Targaryen II

    Jair Bolsonaro

    Drake

    Hugo Chavez

    Chris Chan

    Phillipe Petain

    A random convicted murderer

    A large asteroid, plummeting towards Earth's gravity well

    Andrew Tate

    Dylan Klebold

    A severe case of ulcerative colitis

    A time traveler who can only go back in time to kill Hitler if he isn't busy being president

    Donald Trump

    Kang and/or Kodos

    Satan

    Josh Hawley

    A random citizen with diagnosed paranoid schizophrenia and a dependence on stimulants

    Albert Speer

    Ibrahim abu Bakr Awad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri al-Baghdadi

    Steve Bannon

    Cersei Lannister

    A randomly-chosen prisoner in the US carceral system, sentenced for life

    Ron Unz

    Ivan the terrible

    Otto Skorzeny

    Karl Donitz

    Trump's attempted assassin

    Christoper Rufo

    John Hinckley Jr.

    The Loc-Nar

    The Grim Reaper

    Charles "Chuck" Johnson

    Pat Buchanan

    A random citizen but he thinks inflation increasing by 200% in a year would be "really cool"

    Whatifalthist

    Franz von Papen

    A virulently antisemitic but otherwise well-meaning person

    Erich von Manstein

    Nikita Khrushchev

    Judas Iscariot

    Lyndon LaRouche

    Joseph McCarthy

    The CEO of MALIBAL

    Erich Ludendorff

    Mark Foley

    Andronikos II Palaiologos

    Liu Shan

    Roko

    Alana "Honey Boo Boo" Thompson

    Godzilla

    Hasan Piker / Hasanabi

    Unabomber

    Jozef Tiso

    Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho

    Thomas Midgley Jr.

    Alfred Packer

    Brent Dill

    Steve Sailer

    Erwin Rommel

    Gongsun Yuan

    Hasso von Manteuffel

    King John

    EMIL OLE WILLIAM KIRKEGAARD

    qin shi huang

    Shang Yang

    Richard Lynn

    James Longstreet

    A cockroach

    Niko Bellic

    Commodus

    Tito

    an asi agent from openai

    The exhumed corpse of George Washington (rather than alive during his prime), with a sign around his neck at all times reading 'slave owner' in red lettering

    Vriska Serket

    Miklos Horthy

    Franz Joseph 1

    WILLY ON WHEELS

    J. Philippe Rushton

    Lu Bu

    Yuan Shikai

    Yuan Shu

    Juan Peron

    Connor Duffy

    Faust

    Paul Von Hindenburg

    Charles XII of Sweden

    Zhou Enlai

    Samuel Alito

    @StochasticParrot (Stochastic Cockatoo)

    Marlo Stanfield (The Wire)

    Darkstalker (Wings of Fire)

    Hunter Biden's laptop

    Giego Caleiro

    Fredrick Robert Brennan

    Jeremy Nixon

    Charles Murray

    Paul Ehrlich

    Michael de Santa

    anatoly karlin

    Jonathan Anomaly

    Alexey Guzey

    Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope (as co-presidents)

    Yuan Shao

    Jar Jar Binks

    JD Vance

    Karl Marx

    Peter Thiel

    Liang Mong-song

    Lucy Guo

    A randomly chosen child (<13) who does not speak English and who has never been to North or Central America

    Stephen Hsu

    James Buchanan

    Mehmed V

    Klaus Schwab

    Sean Hannity

    Rochelle Shen

    Black Hat (XKCD)

    King George III of England

    Ada Nguyen

    James Dewey Watson

    Laura Gao

    Claire Wang

    @ButtocksCocktoasten

    Jiang Zemin

    Any child of Trump (randomly selected)

    Salvador Allende

    Rorschach

    Wario

    A literal ham sandwich

    goth600

    Petyr Baelish / Littlefinger

    Elagabalus

    Biden, but as a worm (i.e., Would you still vote for Biden if he was a worm?)

    A well meaning person with severe short term memory issues causing them to wake up every day not realizing that they are the President

    Light Yagami

    Neville Chamberlain

    Rod Blagojevich

    Brian Chau (@psychosort)

    Emperor Ling of Han

    Chris Brown

    Richard Watterson (from Gumball)

    Tronald Dump, his counterpart in the Mirror Universe

    Hans Niemann

    Silvio Berlusconi

    Timothy Leary

    John Edwards

    Lex Luthor

    George Floyd

    Hunter Biden

    Razib Khan

    Kim Dotcom

    Waluigi

    Bad Bunny

    Deng Xiaoping

    Empress Dowager Cixi

    A prostitute from the alleged Trump pee tape

    A randomly picked Muslim citizen of the US

    Brian Tomasik

    Your mom

    Eren Yeager

    THEAMAZINGATHEIST

    Richard Hanania

    A random citizen of slightly below average intelligence who drinks 1 beer a day and has no high school diploma

    Chuck Norris

    You (Are you really willing to take on the responsibilities of the presidency yourself to avoid giving them to Trump?)

    Ray Shaun Elussy

    Lucille Bluth

    Michael Vassar

    An automated veto stamp (vetoes everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)

    Kristi Noem's dog

    Moses (Bible)

    Yourself right now

    Elizabeth Holmes

    Eminem

    Stan Smith

    A random citizen of average intelligence who drinks three beers a day and has a highschool diploma

    Justin Trudeau

    Futarchy (Manifold users)

    Nicky Case

    Santa Claus

    Robespierre

    Yourself from 15 years ago

    Greta Thunberg

    @strutheo :)

    Their child, who has become a juggalo, a furry, and a brony

    Bill Gates

    Gavin Newsom

    Hillary Clinton

    Walter White

    Chat GPT

    Eliezer Yudkowsky

    Destiny

    George Soros

    Bill Cosby

    Ellen DeGeneres

    Harvey Weinstein

    Kamala Harris

    Ron DeSantis

    A can of beans

    George W. Bush

    Richard Nixon

    Jeremy Corbyn

    Joe Biden

    Julius Caesar

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    Yasser Arafat

    Shinzo Abe

    Gus Fring

    Frank Underwood

    Mr Burns

    Mr Krabs

    Peter Griffin

    Homer Simpson

    Hank Hill

    Cruella De Vil

    Senator Armstrong (Metal Gear Rising)

    Ibram X. Kendi

    Rachel Dolezal

    Nayib Bukele

    Ayn Rand

    Barack Obama

    Young Sheldon

    Tony Soprano

    Patrick Bateman (American Psycho)

    Dr Robotnik / Eggman

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Taylor Swift

    Joe Rogan

    Javier Milei

    Emmanuel Macron

    Doctor Manhattan

    Bill Clinton

    Donkey Kong

    Rudy Giuliani

    An autopen (signs everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)

    Sam Bankman-Fried

    Cedric the Entertainer

    Glenn Quagmire

    Scott Adams (Dilbert cartoonist)

    Gollum/Smeagol

    Matthew Yglesias

    Vaush

    Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas

    Donald Trump Jr

    Napoleon Bonaparte

    Jordan Peterson

    Scar (lion king)

    Margaret Thatcher

    Andrew Johnson

    Bill Ackman

    Bernie Madoff

    Jussie Smollet

    Avon Barksdale

    Yann Lecun

    The nominee of the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party

    Elon Musk

    Paul Atreides

    Cenk Uygur

    Georgia Meloni

    Boris Johnson

    Trump from the 80s-90s

    Shirley Temple

    Mark Rutte

    Michael Jackson

    James (manifold)

    Austin (manifold)

    George Washington

    Zaphod Beeblebrox

    Mr Garrison (South Park)

    Lee Pace

    Muhammad the prophet

    Jose Luis Ricon

    BasedBeffJezos

    Mike Pence

    Nate Silver

    Shai-Hulud (sandworms from Dune)

    Confucius

    hari seldon

    Teddy Roosevelt

    Franklin Delano Roosevelt

    Angela Merkel

    Jacinda Ardern

    shaq

    elvis

    random manifold user

    abe lincoln

    bruce springsteen

    billy joel

    Rishi Sunak

    Scott Alexander's Presidential Platform https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/my-presidential-platform

    buddha

    satoshi nakamoto

    A citizen of above average intelligence with a college degree, but the Secret Service will stop at nothing to ensure they are crossfaded (drunk + high) at all times

    100

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    97

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    76

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    69

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    1

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    Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

    Sep 15, 4:58 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM
    191117732

    OptionProbability

    Sam Raskin

    Jacob Tsimerman

    Hong Wang

    Other

    Song Sun

    Jack Thorne

    Yu Deng

    John Pardon

    Julian Sahasrabudhe

    Amol Aggarwal

    A non-human (e.g. an LLM)

    Maksym Radziwill

    Karim Adiprasito

    Tatenda Kubalalika

    Will Sawin

    Elia Bruè

    Aleksandr Logunov

    Akhil Mathew

    Ashwin Sah

    Vesselin Dimitrov

    Alexander Efimov

    Maria Colombo

    Simion Filip

    Jeremy Hahn

    Lisa Sauermann

    Dennis Gaitsgory

    (duplicate, will resolve no)

    Xian-Jin Li

    Yibo Gao

    Mike Wolf

    Joseph Palmer

    Jacob Braunschweig

    Miguel Walsh

    24

    23

    22

    14

    4

    3

    3

    2

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

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    0

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    0

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    0

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    0

    0

    Will there exist a compelling demonstration of deceptive alignment by 2026?

    Oct 26, 6:39 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    70.33%chance
    19776614

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    4812

    2062

    Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

    Mar 16, 7:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    73%chance
    8417347

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    3626

    971

    Will Andrew Gao become a Thiel fellow?

    Feb 7, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    34.25%chance
    12802

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    994

    969

    Will Laura Gao (lauragao.ca) win an emergent ventures grant by the end of 2025?

    Apr 20, 10:52 PMApr 28, 6:59 AM
    50%chance
    443

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    144

    137

    Will someone write a fanfic featuring 3 of turntrout, quintin pope, Nora Melrose, Leo Gao, JDP, or repligate by EOY2026

    Jun 11, 5:14 AMJun 19, 3:59 AM
    39.31%chance
    125

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    124

    80

    Will Laura Gao become an interact fellow

    Sep 19, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    50%chance
    00

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    100

    100

    Will Jacob Rintamaki have raised more money than Andrew Gao by EOY 2025?

    Jun 30, 10:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    50%chance
    00

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    100

    100

    Will anyone from Bradley Voytek lab (eg Richard Gao, Tom Donoghue) attend ISNR2025?

    Sep 29, 12:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    50%chance
    00

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    100

    100

    Will Laura Gao take a course under Danielle Bassett, Ethan mollick, Robert ghrish, or M Kearns at Penn

    Sep 18, 7:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    50%chance
    00

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    100

    100

    Will Bradley Voytek (or Richard Gao/Tom Donoghue/any member of his lab) win Kavli Prize in Neuroscience by 2050?

    Sep 21, 5:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    50%chance
    00

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    100

    100

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