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Top stories

Gap Relaunches Low-Rise Denim for First Time in 16 Years with Katseye in Fall 2025 Better in Denim Campaign Featuring Kelis

Gap Relaunches Low-Rise Denim for First Time in 16 Years with Katseye in Fall 2025 Better in Denim Campaign Featuring Kelis

Authors

13

10 months ago

Sydney Sweeney Defends Controversial American Eagle Jeans Ad Amid Film Boycott, Co-Star Support, and Industry Critique

Sydney Sweeney Defends Controversial American Eagle Jeans Ad Amid Film Boycott, Co-Star Support, and Industry Critique

Authors

8

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Gap

Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]

Jan 15, 8:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

57%chance

9585361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1368

299

Stortest gap between two SpaceX Starship launches in 2026

Feb 16, 5:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

176560

OptionProbability

40-49.99999 days

50-59.99999 days

35-39.99999 days

60 or more days

30-34.99999 days

26-29.99999 days

24-25.99999 days

22-23.99999 days

10-11.99999 days

12-13.99999 days

14-15.99999 days

16-17.99999 days

18-19.99999 days

20-21.99999 days

Less than 5 days

5-7.99999 days

8-9.99999 days

18

16

14

13

12

6

4

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before 2030?

Feb 26, 6:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.03%chance

282692

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

492

Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?

Dec 18, 9:07 AMMar 3, 4:59 AM

13.48%chance

172458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1266

918

Will the gap between open-weights and frontier models on GPQA Diamond be at most 7%?

Aug 5, 9:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.72%chance

81095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

406

25

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1382

859

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all current major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Oct 27, 5:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.61%chance

11715

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1249

958

Benchmark Gap #8: Once a single AI gets >= 80% on FrontierMath Tier 4, how long until an AI publishes a math paper?

Jul 16, 7:36 AMDec 31, 8:30 AM

13572

OptionProbability

0 - 11

12 - 23

24 - 35

36 - 47

48 - 59

60 - 71

72 - 83

84 - 95

96 - 107

108 - 119

120+

87

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Over the next ten years, will the pay gap for Americans with college degrees and those without increase or decrease?

Apr 29, 3:45 PMMay 7, 3:59 AM

12382

OptionProbability

Increase

Decrease

57

43

Will the gender pay gap in weekly real earnings close to within 5% before 2030

Mar 14, 4:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.74%chance

5144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

99

Will Fundamental Development Gap Map stay relevant and updated by 2027?

Apr 20, 4:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.41%chance

27

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

93

Is Conjecture 8.4 of "Proximity Gaps for Reed–Solomon Codes" true?

May 29, 6:49 PMJul 20, 4:59 AM

51%chance

37

OptionVotes

NO

YES

71

69

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