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Top stories

Gates Foundation, Valued at $77 Billion, Halts Funding to Democrat-Linked Arabella Advisors in Late June Cut

Gates Foundation, Valued at $77 Billion, Halts Funding to Democrat-Linked Arabella Advisors in Late June Cut

Authors

19

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Gates Foundation

🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 12, 3:28 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

359598

OptionProbability

Other

Donald Trump

Yulia Navalnaya

The International Court of Justice

UNESCO

UNRWA

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Greta Thunberg

Wa Lone

MSF / Doctors without Borders

Vladimir Putin

Bill Gates / Gates Foundation

Kim Jong Un

Daniel Sheehan

@Krantz

Philippe Lazzarini

Joe Biden

Alexei Navalny

Kyaw Moe Tun

José Andrés

World Uyghur Congress

Maria Corina Machado

Eliezer Yudkowsky

OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights

Timnit Gebru

Elon Musk

NATO

Netanyahu

JD Vance

AOC

Antonio Guterres

Julian Assange

David Attenborough

Pope Francis

Ursula von der Leyen

Keir Starmer

European Union

Ilham Tohti

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

International Court of Justice

Jacinda Ardern

Raoni Metuktire

José Andrés

Loujain al-Hathloul

Ilwad Elman

Narendra Modi

Yvonne Ridley

Hajer Sharief

Alexis Tsipras

Isaias Afwerki

Nathan Law

Agnes Chow

Filippo Grandi

Yuan Longping

Mahbouba Seraj

Narges Mohammadi

Victoria Tauli-Corpuz

Juan Carlos Jintiach

Joshua Wong

Ernest Moniz

DOGE

Kamala Harris

Noam Chomsky

International Fact-Checking Network

Manifold Markets

Justin Trudeau

Aleksandr Lukashenko

Sam Altman

Abdullah Öcalan

Robert Kennedy Jr

59

9

3

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.7%chance

266994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7748

3856

Who has received USAID funding?

Feb 5, 5:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

133508

OptionProbability

Reuters

The Washington Post

NBC

Associated Press

NPR

MSNBC

The Wall Street Journal

CNN

Axios

Wired

Environmental Defense Fund

The Trump Organization

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Wikimedia Foundation

The New York Times

Sierra Club

Greenpeace

Black Lives Matter

Hamas

41

38

36

34

32

30

30

28

27

25

23

21

20

20

19

17

13

12

12

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

71.78%chance

201532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1449

734

Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

35.72%chance

13340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

891

Will civilizational-preservation bunkers get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 30, 6:42 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.15%chance

7311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

228

200

Will space governance / space colonization get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:20 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

13.64%chance

9308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

463

181

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

Will S-risk prevention get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 3:56 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

60.23%chance

6111

OptionVotes

NO

YES

222

153

Will mental-health / subjective-wellbeing interventions in LMIC get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:06 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

64.69%chance

5110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

356

226

Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 9:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

59.64%chance

643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

223

191

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Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Politics
Business
Gates Foundation, Valued at $77 Billion, Halts Funding to Democrat-Linked Arabella Advisors in Late June Cut
Authors
19
3 months ago

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