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Prediction markets for Gates Foundation
🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
Mar 12, 3:28 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM
4410899
OptionProbability
71
4
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
32.7%chance
266994
OptionVotes
7748
3856
Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?
Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
34.79%chance
141630
OptionVotes
1809
1260
Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
68.62%chance
211582
OptionVotes
1331
784
Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
35.72%chance
13340
OptionVotes
1164
891
Will civilizational-preservation bunkers get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 30, 6:42 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
65.15%chance
7311
OptionVotes
228
200
Will wild-animal welfare interventions get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 29, 2:14 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
71.93%chance
11255
OptionVotes
344
223
Will farmed-invertebrate welfare (shrimp, insects, octopi, etc) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 29, 2:49 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
75.86%chance
10207
OptionVotes
399
199
Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
70.79%chance
14181
OptionVotes
1013
986
Will human intelligence augmentation / embryo selection get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 6:26 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
52.08%chance
8132
OptionVotes
265
178
Will mental-health / subjective-wellbeing interventions in LMIC get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 6:06 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
64.69%chance
5110
OptionVotes
356
226
Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Nov 1, 9:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
59.64%chance
643
OptionVotes
223
191
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