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Top stories

American Eagle’s Sydney Sweeney Ad Boosts Stock and Website Traffic Despite 9% Foot Traffic Drop and 12% Offense Rate

American Eagle’s Sydney Sweeney Ad Boosts Stock and Website Traffic Despite 9% Foot Traffic Drop and 12% Offense Rate

Authors

24

3 days ago

Prediction markets for Generation Lab

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.57%chance

3612418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19650

5089

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

1224

By the end of 2025 will general AIs like GPT-4o make better music than specialist AIs like Udio did in spring of 2024?

May 16, 4:43 AMJan 8, 7:59 AM

11.77%chance

377085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2541

194

7. Major progress will be made on building AI systems that can themselves autonomously build better AI systems.

Dec 27, 8:18 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

73.96%chance

203037

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1685

593

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.61%chance

162204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2981

1492

2. Scaling laws will be discovered and exploited in areas beyond text—in particular, in robotics and biology.

Dec 27, 8:12 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

61%chance

131668

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1251

800

Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?

Mar 1, 8:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

41.19%chance

10810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

837

Will fewer than 10% of 18-24 year olds choose to eat meat by 2100?

Aug 8, 1:54 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29.5%chance

15628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1177

900

Will AI-generated media on major social media platforms be required to be labeled as such by the US government by 2026?

Jul 16, 3:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.95%chance

9267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

248

40

Will Spotify create a record label and release AI-generated songs by 2026?

Aug 2, 10:42 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

18.35%chance

6184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

209

69

Will AI be able to generate a realistic map of the US with all 50 states labeled correctly (no typos) by EOY 2026?

Aug 12, 10:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.31%chance

8168

OptionVotes

NO

YES

325

144

Viable human eggs from human cells in a lab by 2030?

May 12, 5:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.98%chance

4107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1105

905

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