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Prediction markets for Genius
💻Which of these apps/websites will still be working at the end of 2029? [ADD RESPONSES]
Feb 16, 10:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
1008713
OptionProbability
98
98
95
95
94
94
92
92
91
89
87
86
85
83
83
83
81
80
80
80
77
76
76
76
76
72
69
69
68
66
66
66
66
65
59
56
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
48
44
41
41
34
31
29
20
6
0
0
Will the United States have more than 1,000,000 households without power before the end of 2025 (starting April 30th)?
Apr 30, 12:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
84.74%chance
143804
OptionVotes
2356
424
1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.
Mar 8, 4:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
30%chance
413738
OptionVotes
1029
629
2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.
Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
82.06%chance
372697
OptionVotes
1928
630
OptionVotes
1635
611
Will any U.S. State have more than 1,000,000 customers without power in 2025 again (after mid Jan power outages)?
Jan 13, 8:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
70.03%chance
111500
OptionVotes
153
65
OptionVotes
170
59
Will the first clone of a genius demonstrate similar intelligence?
Mar 8, 11:08 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
61.53%chance
23481
OptionVotes
1105
912
Ten years after Trump’s departure from politics, will he see a George Bush style approval ratings bump?
Apr 21, 2:35 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM
26.26%chance
15235
OptionVotes
1089
950
Will a genius grant be awarded to someone acknowledged to be the result of genetic IQ selection before 2055
Jun 29, 10:37 PMMar 2, 7:59 AM
26.85%chance
7136
OptionVotes
233
133
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