Global Chain News

Interpol’s Global Chain Operation Arrests 158, Rescues Over 1,190 Victims in 43 Countries; Ontario Sting Nets 1,100 Inquiries

22 days ago

Will we get Rouge AI before 2032?

Mar 12, 11:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.23%chance

264684

OptionVotes

YES

2710

623

Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?

Mar 10, 2:41 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.89%chance

253665

OptionVotes

YES

1905

810

Size of smallest open-source LLM marching GPT 3.5's performance in 2025? (GB)

Apr 6, 2:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82018

Will someone disrupt the global semiconductor supply chain by disrupting high-purity quartz mines by EOY 2028?

Mar 11, 10:50 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

10.58%chance

321438

OptionVotes

YES

1346

902

Conditional on strong evidence of aliens being discovered, will they have DNA?

Sep 14, 4:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.16%chance

291134

OptionVotes

YES

1108

932

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

10916

OptionVotes

YES

1528

655

Would a China-Taiwan war shorten AI timelines?

Sep 6, 6:28 AMDec 14, 4:59 AM

19.25%chance

15578

OptionVotes

YES

1279

904

If there is AI Doom by 2030, the largest human casualties will be a result of...

Nov 29, 9:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7185

OptionProbability

Bio-Risk

other

Drones

Paperclipped

"AI gets the nuclear codes"

Disruption of global food supply chain

AI doomer data center airstrike starts WW3 + nuclear winter

AI hacking takes down global communications networks

Chemical attack

Machines boil oceans as heatsink for compute

By the time we reach AGI, will backpropagation be used in its weights optimization?

Jul 22, 1:05 PMJan 1, 5:14 PM

73.73%chance

7106

OptionVotes

YES

168

Major EV manufacturer announces 10%+ layoffs in 2025?

Jun 7, 7:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.03%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

131

110

What will the subject of the next Michael Lewis book be?

Oct 7, 4:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

OptionProbability

Other

2023 Banking Crisis

Global Supply Chains

Crypto

Climate Change

Healthcare

2024 Election

Michael Lewis

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Interpol’s Global Chain Operation Arrests 158, Rescues Over 1,190 Victims in 43 Countries; Ontario Sting Nets 1,100 Inquiries
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Will we get Rouge AI before 2032?

Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?

Size of smallest open-source LLM marching GPT 3.5's performance in 2025? (GB)

Will someone disrupt the global semiconductor supply chain by disrupting high-purity quartz mines by EOY 2028?

Conditional on strong evidence of aliens being discovered, will they have DNA?

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Would a China-Taiwan war shorten AI timelines?

If there is AI Doom by 2030, the largest human casualties will be a result of...

By the time we reach AGI, will backpropagation be used in its weights optimization?

Major EV manufacturer announces 10%+ layoffs in 2025?

What will the subject of the next Michael Lewis book be?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram