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Prediction markets for Google Brain

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

Sep 5, 2:45 AMSep 12, 4:59 AM

21422565

OptionProbability

DeepMind

OpenAI

Other

Anthropic

Elon's X.AI company

The US Government (DARPA or Similar Org)

DeepSeek

The Chinese Communist Party

A single individual not listed here

Google Brain

IBM

Microsoft

30

25

17

11

6

4

3

2

1

0

0

0

Which company will create AGI first?

Dec 7, 7:13 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

704239

OptionProbability

DeepMind

OpenAI

Anthropic

US Government

xAI

Meta

people not employed by a company

Communist Party of China

Other

Safe Superintelligence (SSI)

DeepSeek

Nvidia

Tesla

eleutherai

character.ai

microsoft

google brain

None of the above

Keen

23

20

18

10

7

6

5

5

3

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Demis Hassabis still work at Google/Alphabet at the end of 2025?

May 5, 7:08 AMDec 2, 7:59 AM

74.61%chance

13941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1415

808

Will a major tech company (Apple, Google, Microsoft, or Meta) acquire a neurotech startup in 2025?

Mar 8, 11:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.99%chance

15845

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1105

905

Will major tech company announce functional brain-computer interface able to read complex human thoughts by end of 2030?

Jun 15, 9:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.04%chance

3221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

Should searchbars use hotkey: `CTRL + K` or `/`?

May 12, 9:00 PMDec 31, 6:53 PM

487

OptionProbability

/

CTRL + K

Other

39

30

30

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