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Top stories

Google’s Flow Hits 100 Million AI Videos, Boosts Ultra Subscriber Credits

Google’s Flow Hits 100 Million AI Videos, Boosts Ultra Subscriber Credits

Authors

13

6 months ago

a16z List Shows ChatGPT Leads as AI App Market Matures

a16z List Shows ChatGPT Leads as AI App Market Matures

Authors

19

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Google Labs

Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?

Jun 14, 4:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

87.08%chance

5012445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2596

385

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31.95%chance

1428966

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3125

2071

Will the next Millennium problem be solved by an AI lab or a mathematics department?

Dec 21, 5:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

456998

OptionProbability

AI lab

Mathematics department

50

50

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2026?

Jan 3, 12:26 AMJan 1, 12:23 AM

65.82%chance

455116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1388

721

Will AI "smart glasses" be a popular AI wearable form factor by 2027? (eg Meta Ray Bans)

Mar 25, 10:24 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

83.08%chance

483902

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2224

404

Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?

Nov 18, 8:23 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

91.77%chance

193729

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3351

301

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

36.9%chance

151455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1310

766

When will “labubu” fall to 25% of its Google Trends peak?

Aug 10, 2:37 AMApr 2, 2:28 AM

121325

OptionProbability

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-02-01

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2025-10-01

97

94

2

1

Which countries will have a top 3 AI lab at EOY2027?

Nov 27, 6:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17952

OptionProbability

US

China

UK

EU

UAE

East/South-East Asia excl. China

Israel

97

37

19

10

4

3

2

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.48%chance

14895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

570

If there are medium-hard to tough problems on the 2026 IMO, will AI solve them?

Aug 8, 12:14 AMAug 30, 10:59 PM

4130

OptionProbability

30 - Medium-Hard

35 - Tough

40 - Hard

45 - Super Hard

50 - Brutal

55 - Not suitable for exam

89

80

76

72

50

20

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

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