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Google’s Flow Hits 100 Million AI Videos, Boosts Ultra Subscriber Credits

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a16z List Shows ChatGPT Leads as AI App Market Matures

1 year ago

Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?

Jun 14, 4:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

72.14%chance

5712815

OptionVotes

YES

1609

622

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

20.29%chance

15211730

OptionVotes

YES

7799

3854

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

17.78%chance

276710

OptionVotes

YES

2154

466

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.5%chance

246554

OptionVotes

YES

3092

324

Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?

Nov 18, 8:23 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

95.69%chance

235289

OptionVotes

YES

4731

213

AI Singularity (props)

Mar 7, 12:48 PMMar 7, 12:48 PM

142992

OptionProbability

The top Elo score on the EQ-Bench Creative Writing v3 leaderboard exceeds 2000 before 2027-01-01

At least three major AI labs (xAI, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind) release public multi-LLM agentic reasoning models before 2027-01-01

xAI makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

Anthropic makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

OpenAI makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

Google DeepMind makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

An international agreement signed by governments of at least the United States and China, restricting frontier AI research to mitigate extinction risks, before 2027-01-01

Demis Hassabis still at Google end of 2027?

Aug 8, 1:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.04%chance

201530

OptionVotes

YES

2066

1937

Leading AI lab spends $100k+ on remote worker training data before 2028?

Apr 20, 3:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

86.02%chance

13293

OptionVotes

YES

248

Will the top Chinese AI model exceed the top US AI model before 2028?

Jun 30, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.88%chance

7248

OptionVotes

YES

174

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

1091

1011

Any frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27?

Apr 14, 6:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.7%chance

221

OptionVotes

YES

101

Will any frontier AI lab publicly commit to a Human Preservation constraint in model architecture before 2029?

Oct 21, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

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Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?

AI Singularity (props)

Demis Hassabis still at Google end of 2027?

Leading AI lab spends $100k+ on remote worker training data before 2028?

Will the top Chinese AI model exceed the top US AI model before 2028?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Any frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27?

Will any frontier AI lab publicly commit to a Human Preservation constraint in model architecture before 2029?

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