Group of 10 News

US military casualties exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader by March 31, 2026

At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of March 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.

Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major facilities causing ≥5% production/export disruption) on energy infrastructure in ≥1 Gulf Cooperation Council state by June 30, 2026.

US or Israel strikes an Iranian power plant by May 1, 2026 (UTC)

Mojtaba Khamenei dies by December 31, 2026

Iran kinetically strikes the territory of any NATO member other than the US, excluding military bases, after March 22, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

US ground troops enter Iran by May 1, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei is confirmed dead by the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2026

Iran takes at least one non-Iranian citizen hostage, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet before January 1, 2027

US ground troops are present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026 (UTC)

Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium (approx. 440kg at 60% or higher purity) is reported missing by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, IAEA, or equivalent major international outlet by June 30, 2026

Reza Pahlavi is confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet to have entered Iran by December 31, 2026

The US-Iran war remains ongoing as of December 31, 2026

US attacks Kharg Island's oil terminals by March 31, 2026 (UTC)

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 80% of pre-conflict (Jan-Feb 2026) average daily levels by April 15, 2026 (UTC), per MarineTraffic, Reuters, or equivalent AIS data.

US military casualties exceed 500 by December 31, 2026

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Turkey deploys combat troops or conducts airstrikes against Iranian forces by June 1, 2026

Iran inflicts widespread damage on US tech firm (e.g. Amazon, Microsoft) outposts or data centers in the Middle East by May 1, 2026

Brent crude closes above $100/bbl on more calendar days than below from March 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026

Iranian regime (Islamic Republic government) collapses by July 1, 2026, via significant security force defections or opposition control of Tehran.

FBI or DHS publicly attributes a terrorist attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) causing 10+ deaths or equivalent major damage to Iran or Iran-backed groups (IRGC, Hezbollah, Houthis) by December 31, 2026

Iran launches a drone attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) by December 31, 2026

The US administration (via DOJ indictment or equivalent formal charge) indicts a US-based journalist or news organization with treason explicitly citing their coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major desalination plants causing ≥5% national water supply disruption) on desalination infrastructure in Israel or ≥1 GCC state by December 31, 2026

US military fatalities exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

US national average regular gasoline price exceeds $5/gallon by June 1, 2026

The FCC revokes a US broadcast station's license explicitly citing its coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

Iran produces a functional nuclear weapon using primarily indigenous capabilities before January 1, 2027

Brent crude's official daily settlement price exceeds $200/bbl before April 1, 2026

US activates military draft by December 31, 2026

US or Israel detonates a nuclear weapon targeting Iran in 2026

YES

NO

YES

YES

YES

NO

YES

NO

One of us gets that dental bacteria treatment thing

One of us will ride in a CyberTruck

One of us will buy a CyberTruck

One of us will move to another country

At some point the group has more pets than children

At least 4 of us will be married (1 already at start of market)

At least two will have children (1 already at start of market)

At least 5 will have children (1 already at start of market)

One will work in the defense industry (0 at start of claim)

One will spend at least a year in Europe

One will spend a year living out of the USA

At some point the group has 2x more pets than children

At least one officially joins a religion

At least three are teetotal (one now)

One of us gets an implanted computing device

At least three join a religion

The group has at least 10 children

The group has at least 20 children