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Prediction markets for Heat

How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026?

Jun 2, 8:04 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

1423011

OptionProbability

>= 100

>= 200

>= 300

>= 500

>= 800

>= 1300

>= 2100

95

93

89

79

60

27

12

How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2033?

May 31, 4:36 AMJul 2, 5:59 AM

1022890

OptionProbability

>= 300

>= 500

>= 800

>= 1300

>= 2100

>= 3400

>= 5500

>= 8900

75

63

51

39

21

11

8

4

Will at least 12% of the population of Phoenix, Arizona die of extreme heat in the 2030s ?

May 30, 5:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9.01%chance

182312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3178

315

Will global heating (directly or indirectly) lead to the collapse of advanced human civilization before 2100?

Apr 14, 6:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.75%chance

251676

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

953

Will the climate heat up more than 2.5°C before 2050?

Feb 2, 5:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.81%chance

241580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1707

526

Will the climate heat up more than 2°C before 2050?

Feb 2, 5:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

171184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

567

Will the climate heat up more than 3°C before 2100?

Feb 2, 5:35 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.74%chance

17898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1310

743

Will the climate heat up more than 3.5°C before 2100?

Feb 2, 6:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.57%chance

15735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1473

821

Will the climate heat up more than 2.2°C before 2050?

Feb 5, 6:13 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.12%chance

16597

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1312

605

Will the climate heat up more than 2.5°C before 2100?

Feb 2, 5:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59%chance

14466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1179

618

Will GiveWell fund an intervention to avoid deaths from heat waves before 2028?

Jul 4, 10:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.45%chance

5220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1213

824

🇬🇧 Will the BBC’s top story be about UK heat-related deaths by end of 2030

Aug 4, 12:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

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