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Prediction markets for Heat
OptionProbability
95
93
89
79
60
21
10
OptionProbability
75
63
51
39
21
11
8
4
Will Jimmy Butler finish his career playing for the Heat?
Aug 18, 11:09 PMAug 19, 3:59 AM
4.64%chance
239971
OptionVotes
4717
241
Will at least 12% of the population of Phoenix, Arizona die of extreme heat in the 2030s ?
May 30, 5:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
9.06%chance
192313
OptionVotes
3168
316
OptionVotes
1632
554
Will global heating (directly or indirectly) lead to the collapse of advanced human civilization before 2100?
Apr 14, 6:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
15.75%chance
251676
OptionVotes
1069
953
OptionVotes
1131
742
OptionVotes
1310
743
OptionVotes
1473
821
Will GiveWell fund an intervention to avoid deaths from heat waves before 2028?
Jul 4, 10:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
25.41%chance
5720
OptionVotes
1713
584
OptionVotes
1283
630
OptionVotes
1179
618