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Prediction markets for High Yield
One year after AGI is built, what will be the interest rate (%) in the United States?
May 23, 9:09 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
174935
OptionProbability
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045?
Dec 4, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
72.6%chance
102953
OptionVotes
1628
614
In what year will China establish a domestic semiconductor supply chain that is not vulnerable to sanctions?
Mar 28, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
182071
OptionProbability
48
16
16
13
7
OptionVotes
230
44
OptionVotes
362
28
Will US 10-year treasury yield exceed 6 percent before 2028?
Sep 15, 2:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
50.37%chance
12438
OptionVotes
101
99
OptionProbability
56
28
16
OptionVotes
214
154
Will the Nasdaq Composite close 15% below its August 3, 2026 close by December 31, 2026? (12/31/26)
Aug 3, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
16.9%chance
4119
OptionVotes
215
53
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