Hold from Reduce News

10 months ago

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

15.84%chance

5010342

OptionVotes

YES

1779

781

Will Trump kill or neuter Vox or The Atlantic during his term?

Jan 16, 5:09 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

13.4%chance

153312

OptionVotes

YES

2542

393

Will the UK Government reduce its current Bitcoin holdings before the next general election?

Dec 3, 2:59 PMJul 4, 10:59 PM

37.71%chance

4410

OptionVotes

YES

1285

778

Will the Chinese Yuan be among the top 3 global payments currencies before 2030?

Apr 30, 11:27 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

55.51%chance

11357

OptionVotes

YES

139

When Will Bill Gates Net Worth Be Less Than 6% of Elon Per Forbes

Mar 15, 5:46 PMMar 15, 5:41 PM

2176

OptionProbability

by dec 31 2026

2029 or later

By Dec 31 2028

By Dec 31 2027

Will the BRICS nations officially launch a common digital settlement currency for international trade by the end of 2026

Feb 2, 11:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

8151

OptionVotes

YES

206

Will the Gulf Railway be completed by 2030?

Aug 15, 5:40 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

27.49%chance

7130

OptionVotes

YES

213

145

Will David Chalmers publicly endorse physicalism about consciousness by 2030?

Nov 5, 4:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.51%chance

7114

OptionVotes

YES

242

101

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

Jan 6, 7:42 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

687

OptionProbability

Partial - De facto separation exists but no formal international recognition by EOY 2028

No - Yemen is unified under single internationally recognized government by EOY 2028

Yes - Multiple independent states emerge (South Arabia, Houthi state, others) by EOY 2028

If Manifold forces balances to be used to increase the liquidity of all competitive markets, is that a good thing?

Feb 11, 6:55 AM

120

Liu-Gu Contention

Feb 24, 12:41 AM

Potential questions for long bet on Robin Hanson Orthodox Jews thesis (500 mana / 100 per great question or comment)

Oct 16, 1:57 AM

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Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Will Trump kill or neuter Vox or The Atlantic during his term?

Will the UK Government reduce its current Bitcoin holdings before the next general election?

Will the Chinese Yuan be among the top 3 global payments currencies before 2030?

When Will Bill Gates Net Worth Be Less Than 6% of Elon Per Forbes

Will the BRICS nations officially launch a common digital settlement currency for international trade by the end of 2026

Will the Gulf Railway be completed by 2030?

Will David Chalmers publicly endorse physicalism about consciousness by 2030?

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

If Manifold forces balances to be used to increase the liquidity of all competitive markets, is that a good thing?

Liu-Gu Contention

Potential questions for long bet on Robin Hanson Orthodox Jews thesis (500 mana / 100 per great question or comment)

Latest stories

Join our channels

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Telegram