Hold from Reduce News

7 months ago

Will the Supreme Court weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais?

Oct 17, 7:08 PMOct 17, 11:59 PM

69.67%chance

1914646

OptionVotes

YES

15156

6598

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

17.84%chance

4810173

OptionVotes

YES

1609

816

Will Trump kill or neuter Vox or The Atlantic during his term?

Jan 16, 5:09 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

13.4%chance

153312

OptionVotes

YES

2542

393

Will the UK Government reduce its current Bitcoin holdings before the next general election?

Dec 3, 2:59 PMJul 4, 10:59 PM

37.71%chance

4410

OptionVotes

YES

1285

778

Will the Chinese Yuan be among the top 3 global payments currencies before 2030?

Apr 30, 11:27 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

55.51%chance

11357

OptionVotes

YES

139

Will the BRICS nations officially launch a common digital settlement currency for international trade by the end of 2026

Feb 2, 11:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

7141

OptionVotes

YES

206

Will the Gulf Railway be completed by 2030?

Aug 15, 5:40 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

29%chance

7120

OptionVotes

YES

203

149

When Will Bill Gates Net Worth Be Less Than 6% of Elon Per Forbes

Mar 15, 5:46 PMMar 15, 5:41 PM

2120

OptionProbability

2029 or later

by dec 31 2026

By Dec 31 2028

By Dec 31 2027

Will David Chalmers publicly endorse physicalism about consciousness by 2030?

Nov 5, 4:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.51%chance

7114

OptionVotes

YES

383

242

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

Jan 6, 7:42 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

687

OptionProbability

Partial - De facto separation exists but no formal international recognition by EOY 2028

No - Yemen is unified under single internationally recognized government by EOY 2028

Yes - Multiple independent states emerge (South Arabia, Houthi state, others) by EOY 2028

Potential questions for long bet on Robin Hanson Orthodox Jews thesis (500 mana / 100 per great question or comment)

Oct 16, 1:57 AM

If Manifold forces balances to be used to increase the liquidity of all competitive markets, is that a good thing?

Feb 11, 6:55 AM

120

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Will the Supreme Court weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais?

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Will Trump kill or neuter Vox or The Atlantic during his term?

Will the UK Government reduce its current Bitcoin holdings before the next general election?

Will the Chinese Yuan be among the top 3 global payments currencies before 2030?

Will the BRICS nations officially launch a common digital settlement currency for international trade by the end of 2026

Will the Gulf Railway be completed by 2030?

When Will Bill Gates Net Worth Be Less Than 6% of Elon Per Forbes

Will David Chalmers publicly endorse physicalism about consciousness by 2030?

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

Potential questions for long bet on Robin Hanson Orthodox Jews thesis (500 mana / 100 per great question or comment)

If Manifold forces balances to be used to increase the liquidity of all competitive markets, is that a good thing?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram