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Top stories

Rep. Mike Lawler Abandons 2026 N.Y. Governor Bid, Will Seek House Re-election

Authors

5

10 days ago

Prediction markets for House GOP

Will Trump authorize privateers (i.e. issue letters of marque & reprisal) to go after drug cartels?

Jan 28, 2:21 AMDec 26, 7:59 AM

15.81%chance

146373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1754

84

If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a near total abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?

Jan 15, 11:47 PMNov 4, 5:59 AM

2.24%chance

101413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1280

46

By 31 December 2026, will the Congress pass a DBCFT (Destination Based Cash Flow Tax)?

Nov 7, 4:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.41%chance

61215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1975

506

Dems+GOP at all times hold >96% of each: US House, Senate, Governors, and state legislatures

Sep 6, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

93%chance

5801

OptionVotes

NO

YES

356

101

How many House seats will the GOP lose in 2026?

Dec 25, 8:00 PMOct 11, 3:59 AM

9591

OptionProbability

41+ seats

31-40 seats

21-30 seats

0-10

11-20 seats

seat gain

29

17

15

14

13

11

If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a total abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?

Jan 15, 11:48 PMNov 4, 5:59 AM

8.07%chance

12589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

632

122

GOP House Conference stock

May 2, 3:37 AMMay 2, 3:59 AM

9557

OptionProbability

YES

NO

174

103

By 31 December 2025, will President Trump or President-elect Trump refer to a DBCFT (Destination Based Cash Flow Tax)?

Nov 7, 4:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.31%chance

5527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1516

660

If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a national 15 week or less abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?

Jan 15, 11:43 PMNov 4, 5:59 AM

16.39%chance

12472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

58

If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a national 6 week or less abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?

Jan 15, 11:45 PMNov 4, 5:59 AM

11.15%chance

12412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

469

78

If the Texas GOP succeeds in redistricting, will they gain seats in the midterms?

Jul 21, 11:15 AMNov 8, 12:14 PM

59.7%chance

12390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1217

822

Will Dan Crenshaw Be Reelected?

Dec 23, 9:53 AMMay 31, 4:59 AM

44%chance

398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

89

Latest stories

Latest stories

Jul 23, 2025
Jul 23, 2025
US Elections
New York
Politics
Rep. Mike Lawler Abandons 2026 N.Y. Governor Bid, Will Seek House Re-election
Authors
5
10 days ago

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