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Top stories

Japan's PM Ishiba Meets Singapore's Senior Minister Lee, Awards Order of the Rising Sun, Thanks Former PM Kishida for TICAD9 Role

Japan's PM Ishiba Meets Singapore's Senior Minister Lee, Awards Order of the Rising Sun, Thanks Former PM Kishida for TICAD9 Role

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3 months ago

On Voting Rights Act Anniversary, Democrats Renew Push to Pass John Lewis Act Amid Senate Opposition and Voter Suppression Challenges

US Domestic Policy

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Authors

6

3 months ago

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3 months ago

Natural Resources

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13

4 months ago

Prediction markets for House of Representatives

What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms

Dec 12, 2:00 PMNov 15, 4:59 AM

132196511

OptionProbability

Democrats

Republicans

80

20

Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?

Jun 12, 12:28 PMNov 15, 11:59 PM

82.18%chance

3812004

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2148

466

Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?

Jun 12, 12:29 PMNov 15, 11:59 PM

17.74%chance

248273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2153

464

Will Republicans maintain a majority in the House of Representatives throughout the 119th Congress?

Nov 14, 12:17 AMJan 3, 4:59 PM

97.7%chance

157630

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6521

153

Will Donald Trump be impeached by the House of Representatives during his second term?

Nov 6, 6:44 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

54.47%chance

365119

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1094

914

Will the Democrats gain 38+ seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 US midterm elections?

Mar 29, 7:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.88%chance

284567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1946

514

Will Destiny run for the Senate or the House of Representatives before 2050?

Jan 14, 7:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.74%chance

262565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1751

830

Will the House of Representatives begin an impeachment of Donald Trump during his second term?

Nov 6, 4:20 PMJan 9, 7:59 AM

58.22%chance

302067

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1267

750

Will a U.S. House Representative, Senator, or President/Vice President self identify as an effective altruist by the end of 2030?

Oct 29, 5:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.47%chance

431227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1234

836

Will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election?

Jul 22, 11:40 AMSep 25, 11:37 AM

71.73%chance

5709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1593

628

Will Matthew McConaughey run for the Senate or the House of Representatives or governor before 2050?

Jan 14, 7:34 PMJan 22, 4:59 AM

36.79%chance

14707

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

958

Who will serve as a speaker of the House of Representatives before the end of the 122nd Congress?

Dec 13, 9:18 PMJan 3, 5:00 PM

8519

OptionProbability

Mike Johnson

Hakeem Jeffries

Steve Scalise

Jim Jordan

Tom Emmer

Patrick McHenry

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Elise Stefanik

Donald Trump

Jim Clyburn

Elon Musk

Kevin McCarthy

Nancy Pelosi

100

63

10

10

10

10

8

6

5

5

5

3

1

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