Human Services News
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Prediction markets for Human Services
Will Tesla have more fully autonomous rides in 2025 than Waymo?
May 22, 12:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
12.37%chance
195449164
OptionVotes
13949
3825
Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?
May 18, 4:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
39.34%chance
7433886
OptionVotes
1242
805
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
13.02%chance
7532370
OptionVotes
25533
3383
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM
56.82%chance
5726974
OptionVotes
114717
87171
Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?
Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
66.01%chance
10726001
OptionVotes
1394
718
Will Tesla offer autonomous vehicle delivery to customers' homes in 2025?
Apr 15, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
25%chance
8016179
OptionVotes
1732
577
Will RFK Jr. be the Secretary Health and Human Services at the start of 2026?
Nov 14, 11:06 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
72.73%chance
6411439
OptionVotes
1633
612
What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?
Nov 9, 5:47 PMJan 17, 4:59 AM
468041
OptionProbability
78
65
64
54
43
40
38
33
33
32
31
29
29
28
28
27
27
27
27
22
22
22
22
22
9
8
By the end of 2025 will general AIs like GPT-4o make better music than specialist AIs like Udio did in spring of 2024?
May 16, 4:43 AMJan 8, 7:59 AM
19.57%chance
376585
OptionVotes
2041
285
OptionProbability
90
57
33
24
22
18
13
8
8
6
4
4
Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?
Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
26.23%chance
261269
OptionVotes
1408
785
By 2029, AI can provide phone banking services as well as human operators, without annoying customers more than humans?
Jan 5, 10:44 AMJan 12, 8:00 AM
58.96%chance
12268
OptionVotes
1023
980