ICC News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

The US leaves the World Health Organization

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

New James Bond actor is presented

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

Approval < 35%

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

trump gets hospitalized

A new supreme court justice appointed

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Fair elections in 2028

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

USA experiences a recession.

Vances have another kid

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Dow rises above 65,000

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

US Invasion of any North/South American country

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

US national bitcoin reserve created

Trump visits Africa

Congress overrides a presidential veto

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

McDonald's reopens in Russia

A major war in Asia occurs

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Joe Biden dies

Trump says a racial slur

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

Trump and Obama shake hands

Tesla

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump announces he is tired of winning

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

New national park created

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Repeal obamacare

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

The department of education gets desolved

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Constitutional Amendment

Anthony Fauci is indicted

JD Vance elected President

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

War is declared against another nation

10% fewer government agencies

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

55 or more Republican senate seats

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Trump gets covid (again)

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Approval < 25%

American Manned Lunar Landing

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Trump gets shot

54 or more Republican senate seats

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump dies

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Record level unemployment

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Another pandemic

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump runs for a third term

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Cannabis is federally legalized

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump is assassinated

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Trump loses the fake tan

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Trump is seen shirtless

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Starship lands on Mars

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

"covfefe" posted again

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Constitutional Amendment

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump and Melania divorce

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

New US national anthem

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)

A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)

United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela

Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS

Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council

Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

Donald Trump remains President of USA

Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba

China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

Algeria becomes a member of BRICS

Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore

At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed

A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room

123

At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS

Izz al-Din al-Haddad remains leader of Hamas

North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS

World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated

Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela

The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths

An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS

Successful military coup in Venezuela

Mexico becomes a member of BRICS

1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon

Any country leaves NATO

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

China invades Taiwan

Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil

Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

Sudanese Civil War ends

Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved

An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period

Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS

North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths

Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)

A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

Israel annexes 100% of Gaza

Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

USA leaves NATO

The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic

Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Argentina becomes a member of BRICS

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory

Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

Any US territory comes under Canadian administration

Humans will extinct

Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

Conditional on the ICC bringing charges against Netanyahu before 2026-01-01, at least one current member will announce withdrawal from the ICC before 2030-01-01.

YES

MLS

NFL

ICC Cricket

Fox News

Kalshi

Netflix

Barstool Sports

Caesars Entertainment

Bet365

YouTube

Coinbase

ESPN

FIFA

Paramount

Manifold

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

NO