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Top stories

Liverpool Survive Newcastle Thriller; Inter Rout Torino 5-0 in Serie A Opener

Liverpool Survive Newcastle Thriller; Inter Rout Torino 5-0 in Serie A Opener

Authors

21

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Inter

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.91%chance

811504802

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58014

10529

Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?

Jan 24, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.98%chance

7173329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24807

4031

Will humans receive a message from an extraterrestrial or inter-dimensional intelligence before the end of 2027?

Aug 27, 5:59 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

3.45%chance

403153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2574

873

Will inter-racial marriage be banned in any US state by 2030?

Jun 30, 1:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.67%chance

272055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

918

Will AI (or humans) decode and translate whale communication patterns to where humans can understand complex inter-whale discussions by the end of 2034?

Jan 18, 5:00 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

82.1%chance

271672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1557

818

Will Lionel Messi be with Inter Miami at the end of 2026?

Feb 11, 10:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

93.74%chance

101215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

508

52

What will be the distribution of inter-day returns of the S&P500 for 2026?

Dec 7, 12:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3962

OptionProbability

p(x ≥ -2)

p(x ≥ -1)

p(x ≥ -.50)

p(x ≥ -.250)

p(x ≥ 0)

p(x ≥ .250)

p(x ≥ .50)

p(x ≥ 1.0)

p(x ≥ 2.0)

91

82

75

68

54

37

31

19

9

Will Lionel Messi be with Inter Miami at the end of 2027?

Feb 11, 10:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.17%chance

11870

OptionVotes

NO

YES

171

112

Will more people travel between cities by self driving car than by inter city rail before 2037

Apr 17, 1:29 PMJan 1, 1:29 PM

45%chance

11467

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

916

Will Inter Miami qualify for the 2029 Club World Cup?

Jun 24, 3:04 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

24.86%chance

5409

OptionVotes

YES

NO

174

58

Will OpenAI model win first "inter-AI-model diplomacy" game where the game is EU4/5, Civ6/7, or AoE2 Regicide Rumble?

Jul 17, 11:22 PMJan 1, 12:21 AM

50%chance

228

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

2026 MLS champion?

Feb 2, 1:56 PMDec 14, 4:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Atlanta United

Austin FC

Charlotte FC

Chicago Fire FC

FC Cincinnati

Colorado Rapids

Columbus Crew

D.C. United

FC Dallas

Houston Dynamo FC

Sporting Kansas City

LA Galaxy

Los Angeles Football Club

Inter Miami CF

Minnesota United FC

CF Montreal

Nashville SC

New England Revolution

Red Bull New York

New York City Football Club

Orlando City

Philadelphia Union

Portland Timbers

Real Salt Lake

San Diego FC

San Jose Earthquakes

Seattle Sounders

St. Louis City SC

Toronto FC

Vancouver Whitecaps FC

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 25, 2025
Aug 25, 2025
Soccer
Sports
Liverpool Survive Newcastle Thriller; Inter Rout Torino 5-0 in Serie A Opener
Authors
21
5 months ago

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